Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Sep 16, 2019

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, “Quac-cidental Correlation,” and Economic Moats
Image Source: Anders Sandberg. Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain factors, while others are saying that many were forced to deleverage. We’re not so sure, and we think it may be the opposite: after years of suffering from lagging “value” returns, we think several quant shops stepped in to take on leverage, betting on a return to “value.” Let's talk about last week's quant quake, spurious correlations (the “guac-cidental correlation, in fact), economic moats and much more.

Sep 11, 2019

Apple Makes Its Big Push Into Services
Apple announced that Apple TV+ would launch November 1, 2019, during its big update event on September 10. This marks the beginning of Apple’s transition from a hardware and software company to a hardware, software, and services giant.

Sep 10, 2019

Consider This Blue Chip High Yield Dividend Play
Shares of AT&T moved higher on September 9 after hedge fund manager Elliott Management, run by multibillionaire activist investor Paul Singer, disclosed a $3.2 billion stake in the firm. The hedge fund has big plans for AT&T and is pushing for changes at the telecommunications, media, and entertainment company.

Aug 11, 2019

In the News: Amazon, GE, Kraft-Heinz, Disney, CVS Health, Gilead
We're reiterating the large range of fair value outcomes for Amazon. We're staying far away from General Electric and Kraft-Heinz. Netflix may have its back against the ropes with Disney Plus. CVS Health and Gilead were two setbacks in the newsletter portfolios in the past, but we kept losses to a minimum and new ideas more than offset the weakness. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continues to do very well.

Jul 18, 2019

Netflix Misses Net Subscriber Growth Estimates, Shares Plummet
Shares of Netflix were crushed during the trading session July 18 after the video-streaming company posted second-quarter 2019 earnings. The big miss in its net subscriber additions was the main reason why.

Jun 25, 2019

Visa, Concentration Bets and Facebook's Gift
Image: In late December, we increased the position in Facebook (FB) while shares were in the mid-$130s. The stock is up huge since then.

May 14, 2019

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger
Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a "fully invested" position, from a 30% and 20% cash "weighting" at the high end of the range, respectively.

Apr 16, 2019

Disney Pushes Deeper into the Streaming Market While Cooling Off on Future Star Wars Movie Releases
Entertainment giant Disney has been milking the Star Wars franchise for all its worth since acquiring Lucasfilms back in 2012. Now fans are starting to shun the franchise’s blockbuster movie releases and that has management considering how to properly leverage this top tier asset going forward.

Apr 9, 2019

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed
Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don't believe Warren Buffett's "style" is out of favor?

Apr 3, 2019

Facebook’s Huge New Opportunity in Instagram Checkout, Reiterating Fair Value Estimate ~$230
Image Source: Facebook's InstagramWe continue to like Facebook, and we’re huge fans of Instagram Checkout. Many may not know it yet, but Instagram Checkout may mark the beginning of retailers’ websites becoming obsolete. The sell-off last summer in Facebook was a big gift for those that stuck with our thesis.