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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Apr 25, 2020
Emergency Update on COVID-19
President of Investment Research at Valuentum, Brian Nelson provides an emergency update on COVID-19. He talks about how policymakers have dropped the ball thus far, and why investors should not let their guards down, despite what has been a nice bounce from the March 23 bottom.
Apr 22, 2020
What To Do Now?
Let's get President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's thoughts...
Apr 20, 2020
Morgan Stanley Stands Out Among Peers in First Quarter
Image Source: Morgan Stanley 1Q2020 Earnings Supplement. Morgan Stanley posted difficult first-quarter 2020 results, released April 16, missing consensus estimates on both the top line and the bottom line. Return on average tangible common equity was 9.7% in the quarter, well above levels of just a few years back (and again better than large bank peers in the quarter), showing the progress that Morgan Stanley has made in improving its return profile.
Apr 20, 2020
Goldman Sachs Exposed to Too Much Risk
Image Source: Goldman Sachs 1Q2020 Earnings Presentation. Goldman Sachs posted a rough first quarter of 2020, results released April 15, just like its large bank peers. Regarding its on-balance sheet debt and equity investments, we remain very skeptical both about the marks on private equity and amortized cost debt, as well as the appropriateness of holding this size of assets on a leveraged bank balance sheet. In our view, it simply exposes the shareholders to too much risk, and we think these investments should be sold down to reduce risk.
Apr 20, 2020
Citigroup Holding Up Fairly Well
Image Source: Citigroup 1Q2020 Earnings Presentation. As with its large banking peers, Citigroup posted ugly performance in the first quarter of 2020, results released April 15. While there are probably more losses to come in terms of reserve build and future charge offs, especially in the company’s card business, Citigroup has held up reasonably well thus far in the early innings of this downcycle (and as compared to how poorly the bank fared during the Global Financial Crisis last time around).
Apr 19, 2020
ICYMI -- Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?
President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report.
Apr 17, 2020
Bank of America Retains Earnings Power and Healthy Balance Sheet
Image Source: Bank of America 1Q2020 Earnings Presentation. Growing pressure from Fed officials on banks to cut dividends, and any extremely-adverse scenario, as outlined by JPMorgan in its latest annual note, coming to fruition may suggest that no banking dividend may be completely safe in this environment. That said, assuming the US economy is able to avoid a prolonged depression-type scenario, Bank of America has the earnings power and balance sheet to withstand most probable scenarios and come out the other side continuing to nip at JPMorgan’s heels for best in class US mega-bank. We are maintaining our recently reduced $28 fair value estimate of Bank of America.
Apr 16, 2020
JPMorgan Outlines Scenario Where Dividend Could Be Cut
Source: JPMorgan 1Q20 Earnings Presentation. JPMorgan posted a terrible first-quarter 2020 report April 14, missing analyst expectations (which are a wild guess in times like these) by a long shot. If the economy continues to worsen, JPMorgan’s results will get uglier from here. On the earnings call, management indicated that second-quarter provisioning might be incrementally worse if the economy worsens. There is also room for deterioration in its Markets segment if trading activity dies down and one would expect the Asset & Wealth Management segment results to worsen if the markets are flat-to-down from here. The government rescue programs might also prove to be a temporary fix and consumer and business debt might just go bad later after an initial fix from stimulus funds received from the government. In the firm’s annual letter, Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon also painted the picture for how the dividend could possibly be cut if things turn out worse than the more adverse scenario that the firm is postulating as one potential outcome.
Apr 16, 2020
Wells Fargo Faces Regulatory Pressure Amid an Enormous Bad Debt Cycle
Image Source: Wells Fargo 1Q2020 Earnings Presentation. Wells Fargo is facing the same enormous bad debt cycle ahead just like its big bank peers, but it is also carrying a ton of its own baggage at just the wrong time. Earnings had already been under pressure before the bad debt cycle had hit, and the bank is facing a very difficult regulatory situation, with a cap on total assets that has been in place since 2018. This is causing the bank to forgo revenue growth opportunities and make difficult trade offs to help existing customers over new customers. This means that Wells is competing with one arm tied behind its back; it has also meant substantially higher costs as the bank has done a ton of hiring to help deal with the regulatory issues. Now Wells is under (optical) pressure to retain employees. All of this has resulted in sliding earnings over the past four quarters.
Apr 12, 2020
ICYMI -- Video: The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution
President of Investment Research at Valuentum and award-winning author of "Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation" explains how the range of probable fair value outcomes of S&P 500 companies has increased as a result of COVID-19 and possible equity dilution on the downside to long-run inflationary pressures on stocks driven by runaway Fed and Treasury stimulus on the upside.


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