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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Dec 26, 2021
VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.
Nov 22, 2021
ICYMI: The PayPal Wave Recedes, We Still Like Shares
Image Source: PayPal. We knew something wasn’t quite lining up at digital-payments provider PayPal when the rumor mill started to turn with reports it was interested in scooping up Pinterest for a pretty penny. PayPal has since put to rest rumors about buying Pinterest, but it left investors with a sour outlook when it issued third-quarter results November 8. Though the market wasn’t happy with the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 and into 2022, the company continues to grow revenue at a robust pace, and we expect several key initiatives to drive sustainable top-line expansion for many years to come. Our fair value estimate stands north of $270 per share.
Nov 12, 2021
Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.
Nov 3, 2021
Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run
“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached during 2021. Though traditional valuation multiples may seem stretched by most measures, many market bellwethers have huge net cash positions and tremendous free cash flow growth potential. We expect the equity markets to continue to be led by large cap growth.” – Brian Nelson, CFA
Nov 1, 2021
FinTech Stocks Still Attractive, Market Overreacting to Visa’s Cross-Border Travel Outlook
Image: Visa continues to rake in the free cash flow. Though its outlook is clouded somewhat by recovering cross-border travel transaction volumes, we still like its asset-light, free-cash-flow rich business model. Cryptocurrency trading is all the rage these days, but when it comes down to it, the average consumer isn’t using crypto to pay for everyday goods and services. We believe fintech is a great way to play the firm foundations of asset-light, free-cash-flow generating entities that are exposed to crypto adoption but not pure plays to crypto’s success, which is far from guaranteed. Cloudy outlooks from Visa and Mastercard regarding cross-border travel activity have many fintech investors somewhat cautious heading into 2022, but we couldn’t be bigger fans of the group. Visa and PayPal remain two of our favorite fintech ideas.
Oct 1, 2021
Best Idea Visa on the Rebound, Generating Gobs of Free Cash Flow
Image Shown: Visa Inc is a stellar free cash flow generator and is included as an idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Visa Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. We are huge fans of the payment processing and payment solutions space. This industry is supported by secular growth tailwinds due to the global shift away from cash-to-card and card-not-present (e.g. online purchases) purchase options, and the ongoing proliferation of e-commerce. Furthermore, companies in this space benefit immensely from the network effect, which creates an economic moat for their business. These companies are incredibly lucrative with relatively high operating margins and impressive free cash flow generating abilities, aided by their relatively modest capital expenditure requirements to maintain a certain level of revenues. We include payment networks giant Visa as a “top-weighted” idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and view its capital appreciation upside quite favorably, with the top end of our fair value estimate range sitting at $304 per share of Visa.
Sep 3, 2021
Best Idea PayPal Is a Tremendous Enterprise with Ample Capital Appreciation Upside
Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – 2021 Investor Day Presentation. PayPal is a stellar enterprise with rock-solid financials. The company is incredibly free cash flow positive and carries a pristine balance sheet while also sporting tremendous pricing power. We continue to be enormous fans of the fintech giant and expect to hear more great things from the company going forward. PayPal’s growth outlook is incredibly bright, and we forecast the company’s free cash flows will swell higher over the years and decades to come. Management noted during the firm’s 2021 Investor Day event that the goal is to allocate 30%-40% of PayPal’s future free cash flows towards share repurchases over the medium-term. We view PayPal’s capital appreciation upside quite favorably and continue to like the company as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio with a sizable 'weighting' in the portfolio.
Jun 18, 2021
Best Ideas PayPal and Visa Have Ample Capital Appreciation Upside Potential
Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc’s digital wallet offers the firm multiple sources of upside. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – February 2021 Investor Day Presentation. The payment processing and fintech industries are incredibly lucrative and supported by powerful secular growth tailwinds such as the proliferation of e-commerce and the global shift away from cash (towards card, tap to pay, QR code, online, and other payment methods). PayPal Holdings and Visa are two of our favorites in the space, and we include both firms as ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.
Jun 1, 2021
ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.
Apr 29, 2021
Visa’s Business Is on the Rebound
Image Shown: Visa Inc remains a tremendous free cash flow generator, aided by its asset-light business model. We continue to be big fans of Visa and include the company as a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Visa Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On April 27, Visa reported second quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended March 31, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Visa’s GAAP revenues and GAAP operating income were down 2% and 9% year-over-year, respectively, last fiscal quarter as its cross-border business remains subdued. On the flip side, Visa’s total payment volumes and processed transaction were up 8% and 11% year-over-year, respectively, in constant currency terms. Coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) vaccine distribution efforts should help global health authorities eventually bring the pandemic to an end, though the return of international travel and related activities to pre-pandemic levels is likely a way off. During its latest earnings report, Visa’s business showcased serious signs that a recovery was already well underway, and we continue to be huge fans of the name. We include Visa as a top-weighted idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.