Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Sep 1, 2022

Best Idea Visa Is a Free Cash Flow Cow
Image Shown: Visa Inc is a tremendous free cash flow generator and is very shareholder friendly. Management distributes cash back to investors primarily through sizable share repurchases and to a lesser extent, through dividend increases. Image Source: Visa Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. Visa reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended June 30, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Visa is included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as we view its capital appreciation upside potential quite favorably. Our recently updated fair value estimate for Visa stands at $226 per share with room for upside as the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $271 per share, well above where shares of V are trading at as of this writing. Visa also offers investors incremental dividend growth upside potential, though its payout is not a top capital allocation priority as management prefers to purchase sizable amounts of the firm’s stock. Shares of V yield a modest ~0.7% as of this writing.

Aug 27, 2022

Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to "Raise" Incremental Cash
Video: Valuentum's Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by "tapped out" consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market "flush," and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to "raise" incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes.

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Aug 6, 2022

Global Payments Buying EVO Payments as Fintech Industry Consolidates
Image Shown: Global Payments Inc is in the process of acquiring EVO Payments Inc. Image Source: Global Payments Inc – Second Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. Global Payments announced it would acquire EVO Payments for $34 per share through an all-cash deal worth ~$4.0 billion by enterprise value. As its name would suggest, Global Payments provides payment technology and software solutions to customers in over 100 countries. By acquiring EVO Payments, which focuses on providing payment technology and services to small and medium-sized businesses in over 50 markets worldwide, Global Payments will extend its reach into new markets (including Chile, Germany, Greece, and Poland) while enhancing its presence in existing markets (including Canada, the US, Mexico, the UK, Ireland, and Spain).

Jul 11, 2022

Valuentum's Unmatched Product Suite
We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value--net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects.

Jul 4, 2022

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds
"Though I have been clearly wrong on my near-term thesis for inflation-driven earnings expansion, we still did great sorting through investment idea considerations. Through late June, for example, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated 4-5 percentage points of alpha relative to the S&P 500, as measured by the SPY. The simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is down only modestly this year, also performing better than traditional benchmarks. The simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter is generating “alpha” against comparable benchmarks, and the Exclusive publication continues to deliver, with both capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations generating fantastic success rates. ESG and options-idea generation have also been great. With all this being said, in the long run, I believe nominal earnings will expand rapidly from 2021 levels, which is why I remain bullish on stocks. I believe markets tend to overestimate earnings in the near term and underestimate them in the long run. The intelligent investor knows, too, that the most money is made during recessions and bear markets, where steady reinvestment and dollar cost averaging help to better position portfolios for higher returns over the longer run. The newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for continued “outperformance,” in our view, and while we may make a few tweaks to them, we’re not making any material changes at this time."

Jun 10, 2022

Taiwan Semi Firing on All Cylinders
Image Source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. We are huge fans of Taiwan Semi which offers investors a combination of capital appreciation and income growth upside. Shares of TSM yield ~2.1% as of this writing. Taiwan Semi is included as an idea in our ESG Newsletter portfoliio. The firm is incredibly shareholder friendly with good governance practices, focuses on sustainable manufacturing practices where feasible (placing a great emphasis on effective resource management, limiting pollution, and utilizing green energy), and has a management team that comes from diverse backgrounds (keeping in mind Taiwan Semi is headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan).

May 12, 2022

PayPal and Visa Remain Attractive Long-Term Ideas
Image Source: Visa Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. The payment processing and payment solutions space is attractive. Companies operating in this industry have asset-light business models with relatively modest capital expenditure requirements to maintain a given level of revenues, making free cash flows easier to come by. Additionally, the industry’s growth outlook is incredibly bright and supported by secular tailwinds as the world continues to shift away from cash and towards other payment options (card, mobile apps, QR codes, online payment platforms). Our two favorite companies in this space are PayPal Holdings and Visa, and we include both as ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Online spending levels remain robust even as the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic fades and households resume outdoor activities, while global travel activities are resuming in earnest as the economy opens back up. PayPal and Visa both recently updated investors on their financial standing and outlook, and overall, we liked what we saw.

Jan 28, 2022

Visa Remains One of Our Favorite Ideas
Image Shown: Visa Inc, one of our favorite companies, has been growing robustly of late. Image Source: Visa Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On January 27, Visa reported first quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended December 31, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of V shot higher after its results were made public. We include Visa as a “top-weighted” idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and remain huge fans of the company. Our fair value estimate sits at $255 per share of V, well above where Visa is trading at as of this writing, indicating the payment processing giant has ample room to run higher from current levels. Shares of V yield a modest ~0.7% as of this writing.

Jan 22, 2022

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Image: Erica Nicol. Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor may be doing much worse. Our timing to exit some very speculative ideas in the Exclusive publication has been impeccable. Beware of “best-fitted” backtest data regarding sequence of return risks. Research is to help you navigate the future, not the past. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul and grow more and more excited as our simulated newsletter portfolios continue to hold up very well. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Stick with the largest, strongest growth names. We still like large cap growth and big cap tech, though we are tactical overweight in the largest energy stocks (e.g. XOM, CVX, XLE). The latest short idea in the Exclusive publication has collapsed aggressively since highlight January 9, and we remain encouraged by the resilience of ideas in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Our options idea generation remains ongoing.