Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 22, 2023

There Will Be Volatility
Image: An ETF tracking Russell 1000 "growth" stocks has outperformed an ETF tracking Russell 2000 "value" stocks since the beginning of 2021. To us, the market remains hypersensitive to almost every economic data point that hits the wires, and we’re just not going to play that game. The macro headlines and never-ending news flow are what many quant and algorithmic traders are trading on, and to a very large extent, for investors with a long-term horizon, these macro data points just don’t factor into the equation. When valuing equities, we’re always after mid-cycle expectations, not peak or trough performance, so our valuations implicitly embed a "normal" recession. Warren Buffett didn’t become a billionaire buying and selling on macro data points, and volatility is simply to be expected given the proliferation of price-agnostic trading these days. Instead of panicking over higher interest rates, we think investors should view the Fed’s work thus far as future potential dry powder to stimulate both the economy and the markets. Whenever you feel like stocks are no good, have a read of Warren Buffett’s classic piece written during the Great Financial Crisis, “Buy American. I Am.” To us, we still like stocks for the long run. Happy investing!

Oct 9, 2023

Investors Likely Overreacting to Long-Run Impact That Weight-Loss Drugs Will Have on Snack and Food Stocks
Image: Domino’s stock has slumped recently due to weakening same-store sales expansion and concerns that weight-loss drugs will have on snack and food demand. The American eater continues to fight the “battle of the bulge” as many seek improved lifestyles and the health benefits from losing weight and getting in shape. The healthcare industry is delivering on this front, too, with diabetes drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly called GLP-1 agonists that also have weight-loss benefits. Though we applaud what looks to be a solution in part for the obesity epidemic that has overtaken the U.S., investors are growing concerned that food that snack and food stocks will see slackening demand.

Sep 20, 2023

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson
Valuentum's President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions.

Aug 28, 2023

Stock Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Jun 26, 2023

Latest Report Updates Concentrated in Mining & Chemicals and Healthcare Industries
In our 16-page equity research reports, we offer a fair value estimate for each company based on a rigorous and transparent discounted cash flow process, assess the attractiveness of a stock based on a firm-specific margin of safety, and provide a relative valuation comparison in the context of the company’s industry and peers. Each report includes detailed pro forma financial statements, explicit fundamental forecasts, and scenario analysis. A cross section of the ValueCreation and ValueRisk ratings provides a financial assessment of a company’s business quality (competitive position), while the ValueTrend and Economic Castle ratings offer insight into the trajectory of a firm’s economic profit creation (ROIC versus WACC). Included in each 16-page report is a company's rating on the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI), a methodology that combines rigorous financial and valuation analysis with an evaluation of a firm's technicals and momentum indicators to derive a score between 1 and 10 for each company (10=best). We believe the VBI methodology helps identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to consider buying, helping to avoid value traps and lagging performance due to the opportunity cost of holding a stock with great potential but at an inopportune time. The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio puts the VBI into practice. Read more about the Valuentum Buying Index rating system, "Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too." Members can access our 16-page company research reports by using our 'Symbol' search box in our website header.

May 30, 2023

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too
Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks.

May 17, 2023

Our Reports on the Health Care Bellwethers Industry
Our reports on the Health Care Bellwethers industry can be found in this article. Reports include JNJ, CVS, ABT, ABBV, LLY, AMGN, MRK, PFE, VRTX, UNH, BMY, GILD, ISRG, MDT, WBA, ZTS.

Apr 14, 2023

UnitedHealth Group Raises Guidance for 2023
Image: We view valuation as a range of probable fair value outcomes. The high end of the fair value estimate range for UnitedHealth Group stands north of $600. Shares are currently trading at ~$520 each at the time of this writing. We’re huge fans of entities that generate strong free cash flow and boast a healthy net cash position on the books, and that includes UnitedHealth Group. During the first quarter of 2023, the company returned $3.5 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. UnitedHealth remains one of our top dividend growth ideas, and while the company yields just ~1.3% at this time, we expect its future pace of dividend growth to be robust, especially in light of its strong potential earnings expansion that is backed by robust free cash flow generation and a net-cash-rich balance sheet. It’s simply hard not to like UnitedHealth Group.

Jan 13, 2023

UnitedHealth Is A Free Cash Flow Powerhouse; Shares Yield ~1.3%
Image Source: UnitedHealth Group. Very few firms have the type of free cash flow conversion as that of UnitedHealth Group, and the company’s free cash flow coverage of its cash dividends remains phenomenal, all the while its balance sheet remains as strong as ever. We expect the firm to continue to raise its 2023 guidance throughout the year as momentum behind its UnitedHealthcare and Optum divisions accelerate. The executive team remains confident that it will achieve its long-term goal of growing earnings per share in the range of 13%-16% per annum, and while that may seem aggressive, it is achievable, in our view. Healthcare spending remains a large part of U.S. GDP, and we expect overall spending on healthcare to continue to expand at a rapid clip in coming years. We continue to like UnitedHealth Group as a dividend growth idea, and its financials speak to tremendous payout support.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!