Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Aug 24, 2022

ICYMI (Aug 19) -- ALERT -- PYPL, META, GOOG, V -- Making Some Big Changes in the Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio!
Image Shown: We are very happy with the overall "performance" of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, which is carving out 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022 on a price-only basis, as shown in the table above. However, we're making some big changes to the simulated newsletter portfolio today on some of our favorite names. Our best ideas continue to be in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, the simulated ESG Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, as well as with our additional options commentary. We're making some big moves in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio today! At the moment, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is carving out about 2.6 percentage points of relative outperformance so far in 2022, on a price-only basis relative to the the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF. Overall, after some huge years, the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is down a modest ~8.6% in 2022, by our estimates. Pretty good, all things considered. That said, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has bounced right off its 200-day moving average (technical resistance), and we're not going to sit by while the risks to the market this year increase. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul, of course, but we think incremental alpha may be generated by removing/trimming/adding to some of our winners in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at this time. We're changing our mind on a couple things, too, as any good investor does. [This note was emailed to members August 19.]

Aug 19, 2022

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
Image Source: Tim Green. We outline the '16 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market.' We think it's important to take a read of these key stock market tenets when things are going great -- and perhaps even more important when things aren't going your way. This continues to be a working document.

Jul 1, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 1
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jun 24, 2022

Best Idea Korn Ferry Enters New Fiscal Year on a High Note
Image Shown: Best idea Korn Ferry posted a stellar fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 earnings report with several of its core financial metrics reaching all-time highs. The firm also issued out favorable near term guidance in conjunction with its latest earnings update. We continue to be huge fans of the global management consulting firm. Image Source: Korn Ferry – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On June 22, global management consulting firm Korn Ferry reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended April 30, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The firm also raised its dividend 15% sequentially to $0.15 per share or $0.60 on an annualized basis in conjunction with its earnings update, good for a forward-looking yield of ~1.1% as of this writing. Korn Ferry’s dividend growth story offers incremental upside to its substantial capital appreciation potential. We include Korn Ferry as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and our fair value estimate sits at $86 per share, with the lower end of our fair value estimate sitting at $69 per share. As of this writing, shares of KFY are trading well below the low end of our fair value estimate range.

Jun 24, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of June 24
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Jun 14, 2022

Best Idea Korn Ferry Supported by Stellar Financials
Image Shown: Korn Ferry put up tremendous performance in the quarter ended January 2022 and provided favorable near term guidance in conjunction with its fiscal third quarter earnings update. We include Korn Ferry in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Korn Ferry – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. The global organizational consulting firm Korn Ferry is included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and we continue to be huge fans of the name. Korn Ferry is a tremendous free cash flow generator with a stellar business model. The differentiated nature of its offerings provides Korn Ferry with ample pricing power, allowing it to preserve its margins in the face of major inflationary headwinds. Korn Ferry is supported by a nice net cash position and its underlying financial performance has been aggressively trending in the right direction.

Jun 10, 2022

Taiwan Semi Firing on All Cylinders
Image Source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. We are huge fans of Taiwan Semi which offers investors a combination of capital appreciation and income growth upside. Shares of TSM yield ~2.1% as of this writing. Taiwan Semi is included as an idea in our ESG Newsletter portfoliio. The firm is incredibly shareholder friendly with good governance practices, focuses on sustainable manufacturing practices where feasible (placing a great emphasis on effective resource management, limiting pollution, and utilizing green energy), and has a management team that comes from diverse backgrounds (keeping in mind Taiwan Semi is headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan).

Mar 14, 2022

Valuentum Weekly: Yields on New Series I Savings Bonds Have Soared!
The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are all indicated up Sunday night (March 13), but that may not mean much when trading kicks off tomorrow. The start to 2022 has been one of the worst stretches during the past decade, but broader market indexes still aren't down much, even after factoring in several expected rate hikes by the Fed and economic sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine. According to data from Seeking Alpha, the S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and Nasdaq (QQQ) are off ~12%, ~10%, and ~19% so far this year, respectively. However, this weakness compares to (and is inclusive of) incredible 5-year price-only returns on the SPY, DIA, and QQQ of ~77%, ~58%, ~146%, respectively, so it's hard for stock investors to be disappointed in much of anything, even if all they were able to do was match the returns of the S&P 500 the past 5 years. Many, however, unfortunately, diluted those 5-year returns with hefty bond and international exposure and sometimes large AUM fees, so the weakness in 2022 is probably more painful for some than perhaps it should be. In any case, we remain bullish on stocks for the long run, with a heavy bent toward large cap growth and big cap tech with tactical overweight "positions" in big cap energy.

Dec 9, 2021

Best Idea Korn Ferry Continues to Fire on All Cylinders
Image Shown: Korn Ferry, an idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, reported a strong earnings report on December 8. Image Source: Korn Ferry – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. We added Korn Ferry to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio on January 12, 2021. Since then, shares of KFY have surged higher by ~58% as of this writing before taking dividend considerations into account. As of this writing, shares of KFY yield ~0.6% and its income generation upside offers incremental upside to its stellar capital appreciation potential. The top end of our recently-revised fair value estimate sits at $104 per share. Shares of KFY shifted higher in the wake of its latest earnings report as investors continue to warm up to its promising long-term growth outlook, pristine balance sheet, and resilient business model. We liked what we saw in its latest earnings update.

Dec 3, 2021

Valuentum Weekly: Nothing Surprising, Well-Positioned!
Image source: Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has fallen more than 40% from its 52-week high. This is nothing short of a complete and utter bloodbath for such an actively-managed fund, in our view. We note this for context. We're not just talking about one or two or five stocks that are down 40% from 52-week highs, but the *entire fund.* Investors have to keep things in perspective. It's perfectly reasonable within the context of a portfolio to have a few stocks off 10%, 20%, or maybe even 50% from all-time highs. However, if your entire portfolio is down 40%+ from 52-week highs, you're doing something wrong.We're finally getting a shake out of the substantial excesses in the market. Entities such as DocuSign are down more than 40% during the trading session December 3, 2021. All-star funds such as the ARK Innovation ETF with well-known fund managers are down over 40% from all-time highs. It's a bloodbath out there if you're not positioned correctly. I can only imagine the sheer panic that's going on right now. It's laughable, but we sometimes get flak if we have one or two or five companies in a couple portfolios of 20-40 stocks that trail the index. My goodness, what must these investors then be saying to fund managers who are down 40%+ from 52-week highs, and whose funds are down 20%-30% on the year when the S&P 500 is up over 20%. It's clear that Valuentum customers demand a lot more from us than even the best, highest-profile managers out there, and we appreciate that. Thank you. A lot of the traditional IBD and Motley Fool stocks look to be stumbling as well. But we're sitting pretty at Valuentum, and here's why.