Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Oct 26, 2021

Facebook’s Third-Quarter 2021 Results Better Than Feared
Image: Facebook continues to put up impressive levels of free cash flow generation. We remain huge fans of the stock. Image Source: Facebook. Facebook showed what it means to have a wide economic moat when it reported its third-quarter 2021 results. Robust revenue growth in the face of disruptive Apple iOS 14 privacy changes, impressive operating-income expansion in the face of considerable expense growth to build out the ‘metaverse,’ and cultural resilience in the face on a slew of media attacks on its business practices reveal that Facebook may be near-invincible. We’re huge fans of Facebook’s free cash flow generation capacity and its attractive net-cash-rich balance sheet, and we expect more good things to come from this top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. A huge new buyback authorization that we thought was in the cards in the wake of share-price weakness has arrived, and we love that Facebook is scooping up its undervalued stock. We’re maintaining our 10 rating on the VBI and $515 fair value estimate for shares.

Oct 25, 2021

Supply Chain Issues Won’t Disrupt Honeywell’s Free Cash Flow Trajectory
Image: Honeywell’s third-quarter 2021 results were mighty impressive. We continue to like what we see at this industrial dividend growth giant. Image Source: Honeywell. We loved Honeywell’s third-quarter results, and while we didn’t like the sales guidance adjustment, cash flow trends remain solid, supporting its robust Dividend Cushion ratio of 2.6 and fair value estimate of $243 per share. The company has increased its dividend a dozen times in the past 11 years, and we expect continued dividend growth for many more years to come.

Oct 25, 2021

Intel’s Huge Expected Capital Spending Gives Dividend Growth Investors Pause
Image: Intel has advanced nicely during the past several years, but more recently, its choppy stock behavior is reflective of the market having trouble figuring out the future direction of this tech behemoth, particularly in light of encroaching competition and huge expected capital spending growth. Shares offer investors a healthy 2.8% dividend yield, however, which gives the stock a sturdy foundation for the time being. In October 2020, we decided to remove Intel from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as competition was heating up and the firm’s balance sheet started to lose its luster. Weakening free cash flow due to a huge expected capital-spending build now makes Intel incrementally less attractive of an idea, though we note shares continue to trade within our fair value estimate range ($45-$67), which may be revised slightly lower on the next update. A dividend yield of ~2.8% is supported by future free cash flow in the near term, but there may be more clouds on the horizon (and investors should expect a lower Dividend Cushion ratio upon the next update, too). We’re comfortable being on the sidelines as there are so many other investment considerations that fit the financial bill better, in our view--namely those capital-appreciation and dividend-growth considerations with strong net cash positions and strong future expected free cash flow growth.

Oct 24, 2021

Best Idea Chipotle Mexican Grill’s Growth Runway is Enormous
Image Shown: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s restaurant level unit economics continued to improve in the third quarter of 2021, supporting the company’s growth trajectory. Image Source: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 Non-GAAP Reconciliation Presentation. On October 21, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable restaurant sales grew 15% year-over-year last quarter as Chipotle’s e-commerce business held up well, with digital sales up 9% year-over-year (representing 43% of its total sales during this period), while customers resumed in-store dining activities in earnest. We liked what we saw in Chipotle’s latest earnings report. Shares of CMG are included as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 24, 2021

Philip Morris International Boosts Dividend, Cost Structure Improving
Image Shown: An overview of Philip Morris International Inc’s guidance for 2021. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 19, Philip Morris International reported third quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The firm narrowed its reported diluted EPS estimate for 2021 in conjunction with the report, which saw the midpoint of its guidance move marginally lower,. However, Philip Morris International’s non-GAAP currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS forecast for 2021 now calls for 13%-14% growth over 2020 levels, which is an improvement from its previous guidance calling for 12%-14% growth.

Oct 22, 2021

NextEra Energy’s Promising Earnings Growth Outlook Underpins Dividend Growth Trajectory
Image Source: NextEra Energy Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 20, the electric utility firm NextEra Energy reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The company reaffirmed its medium-term guidance in conjunction with its earnings report. We include shares of NEE in the ESG Newsletter portfolio and continue to be huge fans of the name. NextEra Energy’s capital appreciation and dividend growth upside potential is quite substantial. Our fair value estimate for shares of NEE stands at $102 per share with room for upside, as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $124 per share of NextEra Energy. Shares of NEE yield ~1.8% as of this writing.

Oct 22, 2021

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week October 22
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Oct 21, 2021

Johnson & Johnson Boosts Guidance Again, Posts Great Earnings Update
Image Shown: Johnson & Johnson reported strong performance across its three core business operating segments in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Image Source: Johnson & Johnson – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 19, Johnson & Johnson reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended around the end of September 2021) that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The healthcare giant also raised its full-year guidance (again) for fiscal 2021 as its ‘Pharmaceutical’ segment is growing at a robust pace, its ‘Medical Device’ segment is steadily recovering from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and its ‘Consumer Health’ segment is holding up well. We continue to like Johnson & Johnson as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.

Oct 20, 2021

Quants and High-Frequency Trading the Real Cause of the GameStop Frenzy?
Image: The cause of the GameStop trading frenzy remains largely unclassified as it appears to us that quant and high-frequency trading played a much bigger role in the market disruption than what is being reported. We think the SEC staff put out a fantastic “GameStop Report” with some excellent information. However, the report did not get to the crux of the matter, failing to disclose what actually caused the extreme market volatility in meme stocks, while glossing over the substantial increase in institutional accounts, likely belonging to quant/trend/momentum funds, that contributed to the trading frenzy this year. We think investors and market participants deserve to know more about what caused this threat to market integrity and structure as the continued proliferation of which may only grow larger and larger in the coming decades. If it was quant trading, then we encourage the SEC to take steps to ensure that such trading is curbed effectively as it is clear that such price-agnostic activity is not contributing to market efficiency.

Oct 18, 2021

Dividend Growth Idea UnitedHealth Group Beats Estimates, Raises Guidance (Again)
Image Shown: Shares of dividend growth idea UnitedHealth Group Inc moved higher in the wake of its latest earnings report and guidance boost. On October 14, the health insurance and health care services provider giant UnitedHealth Group reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance (again) for 2021 in conjunction with its latest earnings report, boosting its EPS forecast to $17.70-$17.95 and its non-GAAP adjusted EPS forecast to $18.65-$18.90. Shares of UNH are included as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as we are enormous fans of its fortress-like balance sheet and ability to generate free cash flows in almost any operating environment. As of this writing, shares of UNH yield ~1.4%.