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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Jan 20, 2023
Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?
REITs, as measured by the Vanguard ETF (VNQ), have generated a total return of 39.5% since the beginning of 2015 through the end of 2022, an eight-year period that has translated into a measly compound annual return of just 4.25%. This compares to a total return of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) of 116.3%, which translates into a compound annual return of 10.1% over the same time period. Not only have REITs underperformed terribly during the past 8 years, but there have been more than 100 dividend cuts by REITs over this time period, too. REITs just aren’t what some make them out to be. Be careful.
Jan 19, 2023
Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks
Image: The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance and will likely test 3,400, in our view. Image Source: TradingView. Things continue to deteriorate across the broader U.S. economy, but it's worth reiterating that the economy is not the stock market. The labor markets remain strong, but we continue to hear of layoffs across Silicon Valley, consumers are working through their excess savings built up during the pandemic, while net charge offs are expected to double in 2023 as credit quality deteriorates. Consumer staples names may be struggling to make elasticities work of late in light of the weakness in operating income in P&G’s calendar fourth-quarter 2022 results. Consumers are finding ways to trade down to private-label products. The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance, and we could test 3,400 during the year on the index. We remain bullish on stocks in the long run, however.
Jan 17, 2023
Goldman Sachs Drops, Morgan Stanley Pops in “Bull Market for Advice”
Image: Morgan Stanley’s ‘Wealth Management’ division has provided the company with stability, while Goldman Sachs continues to feel weakness across several of its business segments. Image Source: TradingView. Banking entities have kicked off fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season. The quarterly results across those that have reported have been mixed thus far, among the largest entities, but perhaps the dichotomy among players was no more pronounced than the market’s reaction to Goldman Sachs’ and Morgan Stanley’s respective fourth-quarter 2022 results. Goldman Sachs’ shares fell to the lower end of our fair value estimate range, while Morgan Stanley’s shares surged toward our fair value estimate. We think Morgan Stanley’s shares could run to the high end of our fair value estimate range, or $118 each, in part on the basis of technical momentum, but we’re not making any changes to our banking fair value estimates following the results at this time.
Jan 15, 2023
Is It Time To Turn Bullish? Inflation Tamed?
The link to download the January 2023 edition of the Best Ideas Newsletter is in this article!
Jan 15, 2023
Our Reports on Stocks in the Discretionary Spending Industry
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Our reports on stocks in the Discretionary Spending industry can be found in this article: BBY, CBRL, CMG, DIS, DG, DLTR, DPZ, EL, F, GM, HAS, HD, LOW, MCD, NFLX, NKE, SBUX, TSLA, YUM, DKS, TJX, ROST, WHR, KMX, AZO, RL, ULTA, LEG, GPC, VFC, CTAS, WSM.
Jan 15, 2023
Our Reports on Stocks in the Telecom Services Industry
Image Source: Mike Mozart.  Our reports on stocks in the Telecom Services industry can be found in this article. Reports include CMCSA, DISH, T, TMUS, VZ, SBAC, AMT, CCI, PARA. The telecom industry is characterized by rapid technological change, intense competition and pricing pressures. The mature wireline segment remains under attack from cable/wireless products. Mobile technology enhancements such as the iPhone continue to attract new wireless subscribers in less saturated markets, but this has not lessened the intensity of competition. Industry constituents continue to pursue acquisitions in order to reduce bloated cost structures and achieve synergies. Average revenue per subscriber and churn rates should be monitored closely. We’re neutral on the structure of the group.
Jan 13, 2023
UnitedHealth Is A Free Cash Flow Powerhouse; Shares Yield ~1.3%
Image Source: UnitedHealth Group. Very few firms have the type of free cash flow conversion as that of UnitedHealth Group, and the company’s free cash flow coverage of its cash dividends remains phenomenal, all the while its balance sheet remains as strong as ever. We expect the firm to continue to raise its 2023 guidance throughout the year as momentum behind its UnitedHealthcare and Optum divisions accelerate. The executive team remains confident that it will achieve its long-term goal of growing earnings per share in the range of 13%-16% per annum, and while that may seem aggressive, it is achievable, in our view. Healthcare spending remains a large part of U.S. GDP, and we expect overall spending on healthcare to continue to expand at a rapid clip in coming years. We continue to like UnitedHealth Group as a dividend growth idea, and its financials speak to tremendous payout support.
Jan 13, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 13
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jan 12, 2023
Taiwan Semiconductor’s Shares May Have Bottomed
Image: We’re liking the technical bottom forming in Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares. Image Source: TradingView. Everyone has their eyes on Taiwan Semiconductor these days. The firm is the center of attention with respect to Sino-American relations, and the risk that China may invade Taiwan has added a degree of uncertainty to shares that is almost impossible to quantify within general valuation frameworks. Headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, the world’s largest pure-play semiconductor foundry is a key bellwether for an area within technology that has faced considerable pressure during the past year. However, from our perspective, shares of Taiwan Semiconductor look to have carved out what we believe to be a technical bottom, and the high end of our fair value estimate range of $90 speaks to more upside potential.
Jan 11, 2023
Don't Let "Them" Spin the Narrative
Here’s the bottom line: The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has failed both during the COVID-19 crisis as well as during 2022, when diversification was needed most. The strongest performers during 2022 were among the weakest performers in the years prior, and their 5-year returns still pale in comparison to those of big cap tech and large cap growth during the past five years. Small cap value, of which factor investing has been built on top of, continues to trail most other stylistic areas during the past five years. We’re staying the course. Though we expect continued tough sledding during the first quarter of 2023, we think the year will offer an incredible opportunity for investors to dollar cost average into what could be yet another strong decade of returns for stocks!



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.