Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 23, 2020

Fed and Treasury Efforts Might Not Be Enough to Avoid Another Great Depression
Image: The Energy Select Sector SPDR and Financial Select Sector SPDR, two securities removed from both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in August 2019 have been ravaged during this market selloff. We maintain our view that the energy and banking sectors are worth avoiding during this market meltdown. The U.S. is stuck between a rock and a hard place, and we might get the next Great Depression regardless of what the Fed or Treasury does. The timeline for when these markets attempt to bounce back meaningfully from this disruption may not be based on whether COVID-19 cases roll over, but rather when consumers start coming out to spend in droves again, and that may not happen until we have a vaccine broadly available. We're maintaining our fair value range on the S&P 500 of 2,350-2,750, with expectations of panic/forced selling down to 2,000 on the broad market index (it closed at 2,304.92 on Friday, March 20). We believe that savvy investors have been nibbling at this market during the past couple weeks and may have achieved up to 50%-75% of their equity allocation in a well-diversified portfolio via dollar-cost averaging strategies, with expectations of further market declines. Our best ideas remain in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication. Expect more gut-wrenching volatility.

Mar 22, 2020

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) -- Sky News
"The crisis gripping the town at the centre of the global COVID-19 crisis in Italy has been witnessed by Sky News' Chief Correspondent Stuart Ramsay." -- Sky News

Mar 22, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the Oil & Gas - Majors Industry
We've reallocated our resources to optimize our energy coverage.

Mar 22, 2020

Our Reports on Stocks in the IT Services Industry
Image Source: Ashwin Kumar. We've updated our tech coverage universe.

Mar 21, 2020

Top Ten Dividend Growth Stocks to Consider Amid COVID-19
Image Shown: A look at some of the top dividend growth stocks to consider, companies with strong Dividend Cushion ratios and nice payout growth trajectories, in light of ongoing turbulence in equity markets. The 'Multiplier' column multiplies a company's dividend yield by its Dividend Cushion ratio. The novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic continues to wreak havoc on global economies, credit and equity markets, and the livelihoods of many. We sincerely hope everyone stays safe during this pandemic. US equities have sold off aggressively during the past month, with the S&P 500 down ~25% year-to-date as of this writing, punishing the names of several top quality dividend growth opportunities that we will highlight in this note today.

Mar 21, 2020

Boeing's Fall from Grace
Image: Boeing was added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio January 27, 2017, and removed March 16, 2018, prior to the unfortunate accidents that have claimed the lives of hundreds of people. We warned readers to stay far away of Boeing's stock days before its huge collapse. The rating agencies have slashed Boeing's credit rating, and the firm has now suspended its dividend. We continue to stay far away from Boeing's equity, and we're maintaining our fair value range on the S&P 500 of 2,350-2,750, with expectations of panic/forced selling down to 2,000 on the broad market index (it closed at 2,304.92 on Friday, March 20). We believe that savvy investors have been nibbling at this market during the past couple weeks and may have achieved up to 50%-75% of their equity allocation in a well-diversified portfolio via dollar-cost averaging strategies, with expectations of further market declines. Our best ideas remain in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication.

Mar 20, 2020

Stress in the Oil & Gas Industry Grows as Major Energy Exporters Hunker Down
Image Shown: WTI is down almost 61% over the past year as raw energy resources prices were decimated by the news that OPEC and non-OPEC members couldn’t reach another production curtailment deal in early-March 2020. Upstream capital expenditures are coming down aggressively in the US shale patch and elsewhere, and just as importantly, even the bigger firms are throwing in the towel and scaling back their ambitions. Exxon Mobil has recently pledged to make material cuts to its capital expenditure budget, while Chevron is considering such a move, as are others. It will take a lot more than that to stabilize raw energy resources pricing given the demand destruction caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with many households in major demand regions (namely the US and Europe) now “cocooning” in their homes to wait out the crisis. That’s on top of an expected surge in oil supplies from OPEC and non-OPEC nations, with an eye towards Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia. We caution our members to not catch a falling knife here.

Mar 20, 2020

Op-Ed: Bail Out Boeing, No Other Publicly Traded Companies
Image: Boeing B-17E Fortress 41-2599 "Tugboat Annie"; took part in the Battle of Midway in Jun '42; later ditched at sea on 16 Jan 43. Source.Dear Uncle Sam: Please stop bailing out the competition of small business. We need a changing of the guard. Let capitalism work.

Mar 20, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 20
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Mar 19, 2020

General Mills’ Pet Segment Continues to Deliver
Image Source: General Mills Inc – Third Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. On March 18, General Mills reported third quarter fiscal 2020 (period ended February 23, 2020) earnings that provided the market with an idea of how major consumer staples brands were performing before the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic started spreading around the world. In the fiscal third quarter, General Mills GAAP net sales were broadly flat year-over-year as was its GAAP operating income. The firm’s GAAP gross margin took a hit (from higher supply chain costs and input cost inflation) but that was offset by reduced restructuring costs and the lack of a major loss on divestment, allowing for its GAAP operating margin to stay broadly flat year-over-year. All-in-all, a fairly uneventful and uninspiring quarter, but General Mills’ forward guidance caught our eye.