Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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May 26, 2020

American Express Carries Meaningful Credit Risk
Image Source: American Express Company – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. At Valuentum, we are very bullish on the growth trajectory of high-quality payment processing, payment solutions, and financial technology firms. That’s why we include PayPal and Visa as top-weighted holdings in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. However, please note that what makes those firms appealing is the limited or lack of exposure to credit risk. Visa carries no credit risk and generates revenues through fees collected on transactions conducted with Visa-branded cards, and while PayPal possesses some credit risk, that risk is rather small relative to its overall business. Both firms enable investors to capitalize on the shift to a “cashless” society, a trend occurring both offline and online. Pivoting now to American Express, the focus of this piece, American Express carries a lot of credit risk. While, generally speaking, American Express tends to cater to relatively more affluent clientele than say, Discover Financial, that doesn’t mean American Express isn’t exposed in a very meaningful way to a sharp downturn in US and global economic activity. That downturn is a result of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and the negative dynamic effects the virus has had on economic activity across the globe.

May 22, 2020

Facebook Augments Its Impressive Growth Trajectory
Image Shown: Shares of Facebook Inc have outperformed the S&P 500 index year-to-date, as of this writing on May 21, by a wide margin. Facebook is a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and shares have surged upwards of late, sparked in part by its strong first-quarter 2020 performance, relatively speaking, given the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. As of this writing on May 21, shares of FB are up ~14% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is down ~8% during the same period (this is before taking dividend considerations into account; however, that doesn’t change this picture by much). We continue to like Facebook as a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and please note that the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $289 per share. Given the company’s strong fundamental and especially technical performance of late, there’s room for shares of FB to march significantly higher from current levels.

May 22, 2020

Earnings Roundup: EXPE and LB
Image Shown: Covering recent earnings reports from Expedia Group Inc and L Brands Inc. In this earnings roundup note, we cover travel company EXPE and specialty retailer LB to get an idea of how various industries are performing during the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic.

May 22, 2020

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 22
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

May 21, 2020

Southern Copper’s Payout Is Not That Healthy
Image Shown: An overview of Southern Copper’s core operations in Mexico and Peru. Image Source: Southern Copper Corporation – May 2019 IR Presentation. Copper (symbol Cu, atomic number 29) is an essential building block of modern civilization as it is used as a conductor for heat and electricity. Electrical components, utility-scale electrical transmission systems, residential and commercial heating appliances, electric vehicles, and much more all rely on copper products (electromagnets, heat exchangers, heat sinks, integrated circuits, printed circuits, copper wiring, and copper fittings are all examples of products that contain copper). The largest consumer of copper is China, accounting for roughly half of global demand making the Middle Kingdom an essential part of the copper supply chain. On the other end of the supply chain, it’s companies like Southern Copper Corp that develop and operate the copper mines in major producing regions that enable global supply to meet demand. Copper plays an essential role in the transportation, industrial, consumer goods, utilities, and construction industries/sectors. The pace of construction activity in China has an outsize impact on global copper prices.

May 21, 2020

Covering the US-China “Technological Arms Race”
Image Shown: The future of geopolitical tensions will likely boil down to what some see as a “technological arms race” between the US and China. Image Source: Nvidia Corp – May 2020 Presentation. Given the rise of US-China geopolitical tensions, we wanted to cover the changing state of the semiconductor industry and the rare earth minerals landscape. Recent announcements from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or ‘TSMC’ caught our eye. For some background, in the world of semiconductors, there are what is referred to as fabrication facilities and foundries. The former is used to make chips for internal purposes while the latter contracts out its production capacity to third parties to make chips for external purposes. TSMC is considered a foundry operator, with the second-largest wafer production capacity (silicon wafers are slices of semiconductors) and the largest chip contract producing capacity in the world at the end of 2019 according to some reports.

May 20, 2020

ALERT: Important Recap of Valuentum's Research and Market Events
Image: Breaking out to new highs, Facebook is a top weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (which includes our favorite capital appreciation ideas in a portfolio setting). The social media giant is surging on news of a new Shops feature, something we've been expecting and raving about with respect to its potential for years--as we maintain our view that, anti-trust considerations aside, Facebook is poised to become the "new Internet." The high end of our fair value estimate range for Facebook is nearly $290, and we would not be surprised if the company eventually reaches those levels. Note: PayPal, another big weighting in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, has been a huge winner of late, too. The value of our research remains heavily tilted toward proficiency in enterprise valuation and technical/momentum indicators, portfolio construction, idea generation, individual stock selection, and assessing dividend health and resilience, among other things. ALERT: Important Recap of Valuentum's Research and Market Events: Unequivocally Bullish, S&P Target Range Was Withdrawn Last Month, Continued Focus on Individual Stock Selection with "Moaty" Operations, Huge Net Cash Positions, Strong Expected Future Free Cash Flows, Established Recurring Business Models, and Otherwise Attractive Economic Castles. Big Cap Tech and Large Cap "Growth" Remain Our Favorite Allocations.

May 20, 2020

Retail Roundup: Home Depot and Walmart Report Earnings
Image Source: Home Depot Inc – June 2019 IR Presentation. Home improvement stores and retailers with large grocery/consumer staples offerings in the US held up relatively well during the COVID-19 pandemic. E-commerce sales enabled Home Depot and Walmart to continue chugging along as consumers opted for either home delivery or curbside pickup in order to stay away from large crowds. Going forward, consumer spending may come under pressure from elevated levels of unemployment, but for now, major fiscal stimulus measures appear to be helping offset the worst of that particularly in the US and other developed nations that embarked on meaningful fiscal stimulus programs (keeping in mind that the latest quarterly results from Home Depot and Walmart only cover part of the worst of the economic downturn due to COVID-19).

May 19, 2020

Video: A Call for More Policy Action in a Post COVID-19 World
Image: There may no longer be any basis for believing in efficient markets. Investors were bidding up the price of the wrong company because of confusion over its ticker symbol. This is just one example of how markets are inefficient. Bailouts coupled with Fed and Treasury stimulus from COVID-19 will have profound implications on investment behavior, with expectations for indexing and quantitative strategies to continue to proliferate. New rules may be required to ensure that investors' interests are truly being put first. President of Valuentum Brian Nelson presents a call to action.

May 18, 2020

Excited By COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates
Image Shown: The race is on to find a cure, or better yet a vaccine, for COVID-19. Image Source: Pfizer Inc – First Quarter 2020 Earnings IR Presentation. The race for a COVID-19 cure and vaccine is rapidly evolving with a lot of exciting press releases being put forth. Gilead has taken the lead with a viable treatment, Sorrento is working toward a cure, and it seems most all of big pharma and biotech is racing to find a vaccine, from Johnson & Johnson to Sanofi/GSK and beyond. Though the evaluation of the full data set from a Phase 2 clinical trial means a lot more than the evaluation of a limited set of data from a Phase 1 clinical trial, we think COVID-19 is on the run as modern medicine pushes forward. We’re reiterating our bullish take on the markets today, as we believe that the Fed will do anything and everything to keep this market moving higher, meaning stocks may remain divorced both from economic data and even virus data for some time as they continue to climb. We continue to point to ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication. Our top 10 capital appreciation ideas and dividend growth ideas amid COVID-19, respectively, can be found at the following link, “Valuentum's COVID-19 Ideas Have Outperformed Significantly.” As we walk through a ‘who’s who’ as it relates to COVID-19 vaccine candidates, we maintain our view that investors may be facing a “win-win” situation as we outlined in our piece, “Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am.” We remain unequivocally bullish on stocks for the long run.