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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Jan 22, 2022
Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Image: Erica Nicol. Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor may be doing much worse. Our timing to exit some very speculative ideas in the Exclusive publication has been impeccable. Beware of “best-fitted” backtest data regarding sequence of return risks. Research is to help you navigate the future, not the past. We remain bullish on stocks for the long haul and grow more and more excited as our simulated newsletter portfolios continue to hold up very well. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. Stick with the largest, strongest growth names. We still like large cap growth and big cap tech, though we are tactical overweight in the largest energy stocks (e.g. XOM, CVX, XLE). The latest short idea in the Exclusive publication has collapsed aggressively since highlight January 9, and we remain encouraged by the resilience of ideas in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and ESG Newsletter portfolio. Our options idea generation remains ongoing.
Dec 26, 2021
VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.
Nov 12, 2021
Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.
Oct 29, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week October 29
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Oct 22, 2021
NextEra Energy’s Promising Earnings Growth Outlook Underpins Dividend Growth Trajectory
Image Source: NextEra Energy Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On October 20, the electric utility firm NextEra Energy reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that missed consensus top-line estimates but beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The company reaffirmed its medium-term guidance in conjunction with its earnings report. We include shares of NEE in the ESG Newsletter portfolio and continue to be huge fans of the name. NextEra Energy’s capital appreciation and dividend growth upside potential is quite substantial. Our fair value estimate for shares of NEE stands at $102 per share with room for upside, as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $124 per share of NextEra Energy. Shares of NEE yield ~1.8% as of this writing.
Aug 24, 2021
We Continue to Be Big Fans of Ameresco
Image Source: Ameresco Inc – August 2021 IR Presentation. The economic and investment landscape is changing, and Ameresco is well-positioned to capitalize on the “green energy revolution” and growing interest in environmental, social, and governance (‘ESG’) investing standards. Ameresco’s focus on reducing operating costs for its clients while bolstering their green energy credentials and helping secure financing for the relevant projects underpins the value proposition of the company’s offerings. We first covered Ameresco in detail through an article published back in August 2020 and followed up on that work in a subsequent article published in November 2020 and provided a brief update on the firm in a piece published in January 2021. Shares of AMRC have more than doubled since we published our first article covering the name as of mid August 2021, and we think there is ample room for additional capital appreciation upside.
Aug 7, 2021
PPL Corp Updates Investors, Launches Share Buyback Program
Image Source: PPL Corporation – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On August 5, PPL Corp posted second-quarter 2021 earnings, and shares of PPL initially moved higher after the report. Though the gas and electric utility, which has a major regulated utility presence in Kentucky and Pennsylvania, missed both top- and bottom-line estimates, what investors were likely focused on most was the announcement that PPL Corp had approved a $3.0 billion share buyback program. The firm expects to spend $0.5 billion buying back its shares in 2021, and we view this as a solid use of PPL Corp’s capital given our fair value estimate sits at $45 per share of PPL, well above where the utility is trading at as of this writing.
Jul 29, 2021
Microsoft’s Dividend Is Rock Solid But Why?
Image Shown: Valuentum’s Dividend Report on Microsoft. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio for Microsoft. At the core, the larger the numerator, or the healthier a company's balance sheet and future free cash flow generation, relative to the denominator, or a company's cash dividend obligations, the more durable the dividend. In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, Microsoft's numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction image puts sources of free cash in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison. Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information. We estimate the efficacy of the Dividend Cushion ratio in warning against dividend cuts at about 90%. We measure this efficacy by looking at the Dividend Cushion ratios of companies that have cut their payouts in our coverage. If the company had a Dividend Cushion ratio below 1, we’d view the Dividend Cushion ratio as doing its job. Not all companies with high Dividend Cushion ratios are insulated from dividend cuts, and not all companies with low Dividend Cushion ratios will cut their dividend, but the Dividend Cushion ratio is yet another Valuentum-driven tool for your investor tool kit.
Jun 1, 2021
ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.
May 10, 2021
Utility PPL Is Pursuing a Major Transformation and Has a VBI Rating of 9
Image Source: PPL Corporation – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. After updating our valuation models for the utility sector, PPL recorded a VBI of 9 and we are keeping a close eye on the firm. Our fair value estimate for PPL sits at $45 per share. As of this writing, shares of PPL yield ~5.8%. The utility’s outlook is bright, and we are excited by its potential upside once the pending transactions with National Grid are complete. In the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, we include the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLU) to gain broad exposure to the space.


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.