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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Jan 11, 2022
Valuentum’s Theses on Best Ideas Chevron and Exxon Mobil Playing Out
Image Shown: Shares of Chevron Corporation (the green/red bars) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (the blue/yellow bars) have been on a nice upward climb over the past six months with room to run higher as investors are rotating into energy firms in a big way. Raw energy resources pricing has surged higher during the past year with room to run. The global energy complex is on the rebound as demand for crude oil and refined petroleum products is steadily recovering from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. As demand for electricity and heating needs held up well during the pandemic, liquified natural gas prices (‘LNG’) put up a strong year in 2021 and remain elevated. The OPEC+ cartel is committed to slowly phasing out its crude oil supply curtailment agreement first enacted in 2020, effectively limiting growth in global oil supplies at a time when demand is rebounding at a brisk pace. We view the near-term outlook for the global energy complex quite favorably and have been pounding the table on this issue for some time. Back on June 27, 2021, we added Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp as ideas to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios and highlighted these portfolio changes. Shares of CVX and XOM yield a juicy ~4.3% and ~5.1% as of this writing, respectively. Recently, shares of both CVX and XOM have started shifting higher, and in our view, this is just the beginning of a strong cyclical recovery. We also recently added Chevron and Exxon Mobil as ideas to the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and highlighted two of our favorite midstream master limited partnerships (‘MLPs’) in that publication as well. Our fair value estimate for Chevron sits at $140 per share and the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $175 per share, while CVX is trading at ~$127 as of this writing. Our fair value estimate for Exxon Mobil sits at $92 per share and the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $122 per share, while XOM is trading at ~$71 per share as of this writing. As investors continue to rotate into energy firms, we expect that the stock prices of Chevron and Exxon Mobil will continue converging towards our estimate of their respective intrinsic values.
Dec 26, 2021
VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good
Valuentum's President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds.
Dec 10, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week December 10
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Nov 12, 2021
Hard Work and the Trust That Binds
Image: Terry Johnson. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April 29, 2020, “ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” – The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back,” when we saw the writing was on the wall for this blow off top. If nothing else, these three moves alone during the past couple years have paid for a lifetime of subscriptions.
Aug 6, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week August 6
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Jun 1, 2021
ICYMI -- Video: Exclusive 2020 -- Furthering the Financial Discipline
In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum's President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He'll talk about what companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he's avoiding. This and more in Valuentum's 2020 Exclusive conference call.
Apr 8, 2021
The Best Years Are Ahead
The wind is at our backs. The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets to remain overpriced for some time). Bond yields are paltry and will likely stay that way for some time, requiring advisors to rethink their asset mixes. The stock market looks to be the place to be long term, as it has always been. With all the tools at the disposal of government officials, economic collapse (as in the Great Depression) may no longer be even a minor probability in the decades to come--unlike in the past with the capitalistic mindset that governed the Federal Reserve before the “Lehman collapse."
Feb 19, 2021
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 19
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Feb 10, 2021
Energy Earnings Roundup: CVX and XOM
Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2020 IR Presentation. Several integrated oil and gas companies reported earnings for the final quarter of 2020, and as expected, these were brutal reports. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed negatively on global demand for raw energy resources (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids), refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, kerosene), and certain petrochemicals last year, which created massive headwinds for the oil and gas industry across the board. Subdued raw energy resource pricing and lackluster refined petroleum product demand were the two big obstacles for the industry as those dynamics severely weakened the economics of upstream (involved in the extraction of raw energy resources from the ground) and downstream (refineries and petrochemical plants) operations. However, things are starting to look up as raw energy resources pricing is now recovering.
Feb 8, 2021
Stock Market Outlook for 2021
2020 was one from the history books and a year that will live on in infamy. That said, we are excited for the future as global health authorities are steadily putting an end to the public health crisis created by COVID-19, aided by the quick discovery of safe and viable vaccines. Tech, fintech, and payment processing firms were all big winners in 2020, and we expect that to continue being the case in 2021. Digital advertising, cloud-computing, and e-commerce activities are set to continue dominating their respective fields. Cybersecurity demand is moving higher and the constant threats posed by both governments (usually nations that are hostile to Western interests) and non-state actors highlights how crucial these services are. Retailers with omni-channel selling capabilities are well-positioned to ride the global economic recovery upwards. Green energy firms will continue to grow at a brisk pace in 2021, though the oil & gas industry appears ready for a comeback. The adoption of 5G wireless technologies and smartphones will create immense growth opportunities for smartphone makers, semiconductor players and telecommunications giants. Video streaming services have become ubiquitous over the past decade with room to continue growing as households “cut the cord” and instead opt for several video streaming packages. We’re not too big of fans of old industrial names given their capital-intensive nature relative to capital-light technology or fintech, but there are select names that have appeal. Cryptocurrencies have taken the market by storm as we turn the calendar into 2021, but the traditional banking system remains healthy enough to withstand another shock should it be on the horizon. Our fair value estimate of the S&P 500 remains $3,530-$3,920, but we may still be on a roller coaster ride for the year. Here’s to a great 2021!


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.