Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 27, 2022

Valuentum Weekly: Putin, the Aggressor, But Did “the West” Cause the Conflict in Ukraine?
We think the newsletter portfolios are well-positioned for inflationary pressures and believe the areas of large cap growth and big cap tech remain the places to be—names like Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple and the like. Not only are these equities shorter-duration, more defensive areas relative to more speculative tech, but they also are shielded more from geopolitical uncertainty than international exposure, which many managers seek under modern portfolio theory. We’re also maintaining our bullish view on the energy sector in the near to medium-term. However, please be aware that, while strategically we like the areas of large cap growth and big cap tech because of their moaty business models, attractive valuations, large net cash positions and strong free cash flow generating capacities, we view the overweight “positions” in the energy sector in the simulated newsletter portfolios as tactical short-term decisions given their cyclical nature. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, after coming off huge years in 2019, 2020, and 2021, is performing about in line with the major indexes so far this year and doing far better than more speculative areas, where many investors found themselves caught like a deer in headlights. We remain bullish on stocks for the long run--and our favorite individual ideas remain in the simulated newsletter portfolios, within our additional options commentary and in the Exclusive publication. Stay diversified. May we see peace in Ukraine soon.

Feb 25, 2022

Update: Analyzing Valuentum’s Economic Castle Index: A Walk Forward Case Study
There are two things generally wrong with a pure economic moat assessment, or economic “moat factor.” First, it is much easier to assess outsize economic returns in the near-term than it is to assess outsize economic returns over the long haul. Quite simply, nobody can predict what will happen tomorrow, and they certainly don’t know what will happen 20 or 30 years from now. Second, a rational investor should generally prefer expected near-term outsize economic returns than expected long-term ones given the uncertainty of the latter--somewhat related to our first point, a bird in the hand (or large economic returns in the near term) is worth two in the bush (or large economic returns in the long run that may not materialize). The time value of money reinforces this notion. Near-term economic returns are generally worth more than long-term ones in real terms, even if they may be smaller nominally. This is where our Economic Castle rating comes in. The goal of the Economic Castle rating is to identify those companies that are likely to generate a lot (or not so much) shareholder value over the foreseeable future. Instead of pondering a guess as to how the landscape will look 20 or 30 years from now, something not even the Oracle of Omaha can do with any sort of certainty (e.g. IBM, KHC), the Economic Castle rating ranks companies based on near-term expected economic returns, or returns that are more likely to be realized as opposed to those that may be built on “castles in the air” over 20-30 time horizons. By evaluating companies on the basis of the spread between their forecasted future return on invested capital (‘ROIC’) excluding goodwill less their estimated weighted-average cost of capital (‘WACC’), we measure a company’s ability to generate an “economic profit” over the foreseeable future, which we define as the next five fiscal years. Companies that generate a forecasted spread of 50 percentage points or more are given a “Very Attractive” Economic Castle rating and firms that are forecasted to generate a spread of 150 percentage points or higher are considered “Highest-Rated”. Firms that carry an Unattractive Economic Castle rating are those that are forecasted to generate a forward ROIC (ex-goodwill) less estimated WACC spread that’s meaningfully below zero (firms near economic parity can receive a Neutral Economic Castle rating, assigned by the Valuentum team).

Feb 25, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 25
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 23, 2022

High-Yielding American Tower Is a Free Cash Flow Cow
Image Shown: American Tower Corporation operates the tower structure and related land parcel of cell tower assets, while its tenants handle the remainder. Image Source: American Tower Corporation – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. Rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary headwinds, supply chain hurdles, and pressures from the rising interest rate environment are all weighing negatively on equity markets. In our view, this sell-off presents an opportunity for investors with a longer-term focus to consider high-quality REITs such as American Tower Corp, which is now trading at a significant discount to our estimate of its intrinsic value.

Feb 23, 2022

High-Yielding Life Storage Has Tremendous Dividend Strength
Image Shown: Life Storage Inc is committed to rewarding income seeking investors. Image Source: Life Storage Inc – January 2022 IR Presentation. We are huge fans of Life Storage and the self-storage industry. Life Storage owns 1,000+ self-storage properties across 30+ states and has received an investment grade credit rating (Baa2/BBB) from two of the ‘Big Three’ rating agencies. The REIT also operates a third-party management platform for self-storage properties. The company’s financials are rock-solid and recent guidance increases speak favorably towards its near term outlook. Shares yield a solid ~3.1% at the time of this writing.

Feb 21, 2022

High-Yielding Income Growth Idea Digital Realty Expects Business Will Continue Recovering
Image Shown: We are big fans of Digital Realty Trust Inc’s global footprint. Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 17, Digital Realty Trust reported fourth quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, though its near term guidance came in a tad softer than expected. The data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) is facing headwinds from vintage leases rolling off and concerns about surging power costs around the world. On the plus side, Digital Realty is experiencing decent growth at the part of its business where re-leasing terms have been more favorable, and its contracts generally include provisions that allow the REIT to pass on electricity expenses to its tenants. We include Digital Realty as an idea in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios.

Feb 18, 2022

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 18
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.

Feb 17, 2022

Cisco Posts Great Earnings Update; Increases Dividend and Share Buyback Authority
Image Shown: Cisco Systems Inc is a very shareholder friendly company. Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation. On February 16, Cisco Systems reported second quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended January 29, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of CSCO surged higher initially after its earnings were made public as the company offered up promising near term guidance, indicating that its positive momentum seen of late is expected to continue. We include shares of CSCO as an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Cisco announced a 3% sequential increase in its quarterly dividend in conjunction with its latest earnings update, bringing it up to $0.38 per share or $1.52 per share on an annualized basis. The company also announced it had increased its share repurchasing capacity by $15 billion, bringing its total repurchasing capacity up to ~$18 billion. Shares of CSCO yield ~2.8% as of this writing at its new payout level, and we view its dividend strength as rock-solid due to its pristine balance sheet and stellar free cash flows. Our fair value estimate for Cisco sits at $62 per share with room for upside as the high end of our fair value estimate range sits at $74 per share. That is meaningfully above where shares of CSCO are trading at as of this writing (~$56 per share each), and we view the company’s capital appreciation upside potential quite favorably.

Feb 16, 2022

The Castle Trumps the Moat
Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett has popularized the concept of an “economic moat,” perhaps best described in common language as sustainable competitive advantages. Whereas economic moat analysis focuses on the duration of a firm’s economic profit stream, as measured by return on invested capital less the costs of which to attain that capital, economic castle analysis focuses on the magnitude of economic profit creation over the realizable near term. Unlike the substantial duration risk inherent to predicting economic profits 20, 30 or more years into the future, the economic castle framework posits that the strongest performing companies during certain phases of the economic cycle will be those that generate the most economic value over the foreseeable future. The results in this paper showcase the aggregate outperformance of a select number of outsize economic-profit creators within the Valuentum Economic Castle Index relative to both S&P 500 firms and companies with “wide” economic moats.

Feb 16, 2022

Dividend Growth Idea Realty Income Makes an Intriguing Purchase
Image Shown: Dividend growth idea Realty Income Corporation is acquiring its first real estate property in the gaming realm through a sale-leaseback transaction with Wynn Resorts Limited. Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – February 2022 IR Presentation. On February 15, dividend growth idea Realty Income Corp announced its 620th consecutive monthly dividend. Since going public in 1994, Realty Income has increased its monthly payout over 110 times. Realty Income is a real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) focused on single-tenant commercial properties. We include the REIT as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and continue to be big fans of Realty Income. Shares of O yield ~4.4% as of this writing.