Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

Symbol Keyword

Apr 11, 2023

Not Worried About Global PC Demand Weakness
Image Source: IDC. On April 9, International Data Corporation (IDC) issued preliminary findings for the first quarter of 2023 for global personal computer (PC) shipments in its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results were a bit surprising, with the firm noting that “weak demand, excess inventory, and a worsening macroeconomic climate were all contributing factors for the precipitous drop in shipments of traditional PCs during the first quarter of 2023.” According to the IDC report, global PC shipments fell 29% to 56.9 million compared to the first quarter of 2022. Apple experienced the biggest year-over-year percentage decline, where shipments fell more than 40%. Dell Technologies, Lenovo and ASUS experienced declines greater than 30%, while HP Inc. and a basket of other PC makers witnessed declines in the mid-20% range. Channel inventory remains elevated, and investors should expect more discounting from the PC makers, as the industry continues to optimize the supply chain amid pre-COVID and post-COVID demand dynamics.

Apr 10, 2023

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Idea Republic Services Continues to Execute Well
Image: Republic Services has been executing nicely, growing its adjusted free cash flow at a 14% compound annual growth rate the past three years. Image Source: Republic Services. Shares of Republic are trading about in line with our fair value estimate ($130-$135) but have valuation upside on the basis of the high end of our fair value estimate range ($158 per share), in our view. The company boasts an investment-grade credit rating and has liquidity of ~$1.7 billion, while most of its debt doesn’t come due until after 2029. Republic Services’ equity is currently yielding ~1.5% at the moment, and we think it is a great fit for the newsletter portfolios. The garbage hauler continues to deliver in both good times and bad, and we have no reason to believe that it won’t continue to do so. Trash is cash when it comes to the waste-management business.

Apr 10, 2023

Taiwan Semiconductor Experiences Revenue Weakness in March
Image: Taiwan Semiconductor’s shares have rallied nicely since the beginning of November of last year. Taiwan Semiconductor reported March revenue on April 10. During the month, net revenue dropped nearly 11% on a sequential basis and more than 15% on a year-over-year basis from March 2022. Though the top-line weakness in the month was somewhat of a surprise, the company’s revenue advanced 3.6% during the first quarter of this year.

Apr 7, 2023

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 7
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Apr 6, 2023

U.S. Economy Likely Weakened During Regional Bank Crisis; Artificial Intelligence the Next Great Platform
Image Source: Trong Khiem Nguyen. SVB Financial’s failure and the ongoing regional banking crisis has likely crimped lending activity and economic growth, a situation further exacerbating any impending effects on the broader economy from the Fed’s contractionary monetary policy, itself. With first-quarter 2023 earnings season around the corner and the potential for another shoe to drop in commercial real estate or the U.S. housing market, we’re still being patient in putting “newly-raised” capital in the newsletter portfolios to work. Our favorite areas, however, remain big cap tech and large cap growth, as we’re huge fans of their cash-based sources of intrinsic value--both net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow generation. Microsoft, an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, is one of our favorite ways to play the rise of artificial intelligence.

Apr 6, 2023

Legacy of Benjamin Graham
Legacy of Benjamin Graham: The Original Adjunct Professor. This film, brought to you by the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, Columbia Business School, premiered on February 1, 2013 at the 16th Annual Columbia Student Investment Management Association conference. Produced by: Louisa Serene Schneider. Shot & Edited by: Christina Choe.

Apr 5, 2023

Albemarle Is Looking to Buy Australian Lithium Start Up
Image: Albemarle’s shares have faced pressure as lithium prices are expected to moderate in the near term. We continue to like Albemarle’s long-term story, however. On March 27, it became public that lithium maker Albemarle is looking to bolster its future opportunities on the acquisition front, seeking to scoop up a smaller Austrailian lithium start-up Liontown Resources. Though Liontown rejected the offer, other lithium stocks, including Standard Lithium, Sigma Lithium, Piedmont Lithium, and Lithium Americas soared on the news. According to the firm’s website, Liontown’s project in Western Australia in Kathleen Valley is expected to be one of the world’s largest lithium mines, “supplying ~500,000 tonnes of 6% lithium oxide concentrate per year when it comes on stream in 2024.” Another of its prospects is also located in Western Australia (Buldania), which has a “mineral resource estimate of 15 million tonnes of 1.0% lithium oxide.” We continue to monitor developments on this front.

Apr 5, 2023

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment
In this edited video transcript, Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.

Apr 3, 2023

Quick Take: McDonald’s Hits All-Time Highs!
Image: McDonald’s stock is soaring, and we think the company is one of the best-positioned for the current inflationary environment. Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding McDonald’s Corp. recently hit all-time highs on news that it would take a close look at the size of its workforce, temporarily shutting its corporate offices in the U.S. in advance of layoffs. Though not great news for many that may get the pink slip, the market likes the renewed focus on costs. The high end of our discounted-cash-flow derived fair value estimate of McDonald’s stock stands north of $300, and we expect further upside potential in shares, which are trading at ~$280 at the time of this writing.

Apr 1, 2023

General Mills Experiencing Tremendous Pricing Power, Positive Elasticities
Image Source: Mike Mozart. Cereal maker General Mills continues to flex its pricing power. The company’s third-quarter results for its fiscal 2023, released March 23, showed a company that is raising prices almost at will and driving tremendous adjusted operating profit expansion, while organic pound volume remains essentially flat. The company continues to optimize its revenue model as it forgoes volume expansion in favor of pricing growth, and we would expect further price increases across its product line-up for some time. With adjusted operating profit surging, price elasticities remain in its favor, much to the detriment of the cash-strapped consumer, which can only expect more food-at-home inflation. Shares of General Mills yield ~2.5% at the time of this writing.