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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Oct 7, 2019
General Motors and the Union Strike!
Image Source: General Motors Company – IR Presentation. A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, shares of General Motors have come under pressure over the past month from the ongoing strike that involves roughly 46,000-48,000 of its workers (primarily in the US). Our fair value estimate for shares of General Motors stands at $48 per share, well above where GM is trading at as of this writing. We continue to like the name and will be monitoring ongoing UAW-GM talks very closely going forward. Shares of GM yield 4.4% as of this writing. Oct 4, 2019
Economic Commentary: Apple $225+, Brokers Tumble, Auto Sales Look Tired
Image: Shares of TD Ameritrade Holdings have been punished as online trading commissions go to zero. "Though all signs point to increased volatility, we maintain our view that we’re well-positioned in the newsletter portfolios, and the ideas highlighted in the Exclusive publication consider the backdrop economic conditions we closely monitor." -- Brian Nelson, CFA Oct 4, 2019
PepsiCo Posts Solid Quarterly Report, Targets Powerful Long-Term Growth Trends
On October 3, PepsiCo reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2019 (12 week period ended September 7) that were positively received by the market as the beverage and snack company beat both consensus top and bottom line estimates. PepsiCo still has its eyes on the ball in the face of exogenous shocks (i.e. the US-China trade war and the potential for an EU-US trade war) as management targets secular growth trends in emerging and developing markets, but we still think the company’s valuation is stretched after its impressive year-to-date rally. Shares of PEP yield ~2.7% as of this writing. Oct 4, 2019
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending October 4
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week. Oct 3, 2019
Competition Heats Up in the Medical Robotics Space
Image Source: Intuitive Surgical Inc – IR Presentation. Competition is heating up in the medical robotics space, an area of the medical device industry Intuitive Surgical is a clear leader in with its Da Vinci system installed in ~5,000 hospitals and other medical centers around the world (approximately 60% of Intuitive Surgical’s installed base is in the US). Medtronic PLC seeks to launch its own robot-assisted surgery device for soft tissue surgeries, aimed not at stealing market share from Intuitive Surgical’s existing customers (no easy feat given that the upfront cost of ~$0.5-$2.0 million per Da Vinci system on top of needing to retrain surgeons on how to use a new system) but winning over new customers that have yet to adopt medical robotics systems like the Da Vinci. Medtronic’s new offering isn’t expected until 2021 at the earliest and the company plans to utilize the same business model as Intuitive Surgical given the success the market leader has had with winning over recurring business. Oct 2, 2019
Zimmer Biomet’s Near-Term Outlook Is Less Rosy Than Management Would Have You Believe
Shares of Zimmer Biomet are trading on lofty expectations and investors may be in for a shock should Zimmer Biomet continue to underperform during the second half of 2019. Foreign currency headwinds continue to grow as seen through the strength of the US Dollar Index during the third quarter of 2019. We like Zimmer Biomet’s deleveraging activities but think its share price has gotten ahead of itself given these rising headwinds, lack of top line growth, and deteriorating net operating cash flows. We are staying away from Zimmer Biomet. Oct 1, 2019
Carvana Seeks to Disrupt an Enormous Market
Image Source: Carvana Co. – IR Presentation. Carvana seeks to disrupt the used car and used light truck market in the United States as a leading e-commerce platform for used automobile sales. Perhaps best known for its “car vending machines” that are located in key metropolitan areas across the US, Carvana wants to fundamentally transform the way consumers buy, sell, and ultimately ascertain the proper value for used automobiles. Unlike more recent IPOs of high flying companies with absolutely no chance of becoming profitable, Carvana appears to have a scalable business model. For the established companies in this arena, we caution that Carvana may one day represent a serious competitive threat. Sep 30, 2019
Economic Commentary: US-Listed Chinese Names, 60-40 Stock-Bond Allocation and More
Image shown for informational/illustration purposes only. There’s an interesting saying that I came across recently...that hits at the most important component of any fiduciary approach: capital preservation. The saying was “Friends don’t let friends buy and hold.” We’ve always employed the Valuentum strategy, which we believe is much more promising that a traditional buy and hold strategy. – Brian Nelson, CFA Sep 30, 2019
Our Reports on Stocks in the Medical Devices Industry
Image Source: U.S. Embassy Kyiv Ukraine. We've optimized our healthcare coverage. Sep 29, 2019
Our Reports on Stocks in the Energy Equipment & Services Industry
Image Source: Sollven Melindo. We've reallocated our resources to optimize our energy coverage.
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