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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Aug 6, 2020
Facebook’s Growth Story Continues
Image Shown: Shares of Facebook Inc are up ~23% year-to-date as of the end of normal trading hours on August 3. We continue to like shares of FB as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we see room for meaningful capital appreciate upside.We continue to like Facebook as a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we see ample room for further capital appreciation as our fair value estimate sits at $284 per share, far above where shares of FB are trading at as of this writing. Additionally, the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $355 per share of Facebook. Recent technical strength seen at shares of FB indicates that investors are starting to really warm up to Facebook’s high-quality business model, promising growth outlook, and pristine balance sheet.
Aug 6, 2020
Excerpt from the Second Edition of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation (now available to order!): The Greatest Financial Fraud in History?
With an added Appendix and 40+ page Prologue, the second edition of the 2019 Best Indie Book Award (BIBA) winner for the category of Business takes readers through the COVID-19 crisis, building on the key tenets of the first edition. Value Trap received acclaim from the prestigious Next Generation Indie Book Awards, a Finalist in the category of Business. The text was also a Blue Ink Notable Book as well as a Readers' Favorite 5 Stars, named Honorable Mention in the Non-Fiction - General genre. More detail and new commentary, the second edition of Value Trap is a must read for any serious investor. Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, delivers again.
Aug 4, 2020
Apple Surges Higher Ahead of Stock Split
Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc have staged an impressive rally since bouncing off their March 2020 lows, with AAPL up ~46% year-to-date as of this writing on August 3. We added shares of Apple back to the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 12, 2020. Later on this August, Apple intends on completing a four-for-one stock split. We added Apple back to both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios on June 12, 2020 (link here). Companies that are supported by secular growth tailwinds and pristine balance sheets, such as Apple, are well-positioned to deal with the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Shares of AAPL have surged significantly higher since mid-June and are now trading well above the top end of our fair value range as of this writing, but we want to stress here that we like to let our winners run. It is not until after a firm’s technicals turn against it that we would consider removing shares of that firm from our newsletter portfolios. Given its stellar third quarter fiscal 2020 earnings report (period ended June 27, 2020) published on July 27, shares of Apple may have room to run further still.
Jul 31, 2020
Our Judgment for the Long Haul
As you're probably aware by now, Apple, Alphabet, and Facebook--key positions in the newsletter portfolios--put up monster second-quarter results July 30, respectively. We'll be addressing the quarterly reports more in depth on our website in the coming days, but Apple is now a ~$410 per share stock, trading up 6%+ on the session, and now Facebook is trading over $250, up 7%+ on the session. Now at all-time highs, Facebook has been one of the top weightings in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio for some time. Its poor performance during 2018 is now history! Alphabet, while facing some weakness today, hit all-time highs earlier this month.
Jul 31, 2020
Philip Morris International Posts Solid Guidance, Cuts Costs
Image Shown: Excluding foreign currency headwinds, Philip Morris International Inc’s financials held up relatively well during the first half of 2020, all things considered with an eye towards the pandemic. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has severely stressed consumer spending in countries all over the globe, and that includes spending on cigarettes and other tobacco products. For a major tobacco company like Philip Morris International, this dynamic weighs negatively on its near-term outlook, though the company is well-positioned to ride out the storm for several reasons. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a holding in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and shares of PM yield ~6.0% as of this writing. Philip Morris International’s dividend coverage on a forward-looking basis is decent and supported by its optimistic guidance (a rebound is expected during the second half of 2020), growing demand for its heated tobacco offerings (such as IQOS, which is not an acronym), high quality cash flow profile, ongoing access to capital markets at attractive rates (particularly debt markets), pricing power at its traditional cigarette brands (such as Marlboro), and its ample liquidity position at the end of June 2020. However, we caution that Philip Morris International’s large net debt load, while manageable, weighs negatively against its dividend coverage strength. We give Philip Morris International a “GOOD” Dividend Safety rating which factors in modest per share payout growth and expected future free cash flows over the next five full fiscal years, along with its large net debt load.
Jul 31, 2020
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 31
Let's take a look at companies that raised/lowered their dividend this week.
Jul 30, 2020
Visa Remains Resilient in the Face of COVID-19
Image Shown: Visa Inc remained a free cash flow cow last fiscal quarter in the face of the pandemic. Image Source: Visa Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. On July 29, Visa reported third quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended June 30, 2020) that missed consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed on travel-related purchases across Visa’s cardholder base, a dynamic that held down cross-border transactions which tend to be more lucrative for the payment processor. Keeping pandemic-related headwinds in mind, the company noted its performance was improving in several key markets around the world. We continue to like Visa as a top-weighted holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio given its high quality cash flow profile, strong balance sheet, and very promising post-pandemic growth outlook. The top end of our fair value estimate range for Visa sits at $214 per share.
Jul 30, 2020
PayPal Posts a Tremendous Quarterly Report, Reinstates Guidance
Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc put up tremendous performance during the first half of 2020 as consumers are increasingly shopping online. In the second quarter of 2020, PayPal continued to grow at a decent clip even in the face of the ongoing pandemic. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. After the market close July 29, PayPal reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of PYPL moved sharply higher after the report was published, and we continue to like PayPal as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate sits at $200 per share of PYPL, comfortably above where PayPal is trading at as of this writing. There is room for meaningful capital appreciation upside as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $240 per share of PayPal. Even in the face of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic PayPal continued to grow, and we appreciate the resilience of its business model. The firm’s cash flow profile is of high quality, supporting its ability to generate meaningful free cash flows in any economic environment. Additionally, having a pristine balance sheet provides PayPal with ample financial flexibility to ride out the storm.
Jul 30, 2020
Excerpt from ‘Value Trap’ 2nd Edition: MPT Sounds a Lot Like "Empty"
The second edition of President of Investment Research Brian Nelson's book 'Value Trap' will be released in the coming weeks. Here is a short excerpt to whet your appetite.
Jul 30, 2020
McDonald’s Improving But Serious Hurdles Remain
Image Shown: Shares of McDonald’s Corporation are richly valued as of this writing, especially when considering the headwinds facing its business in the near-term and its hefty net debt load. On July 28, McDonald’s Corp reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus top-line estimates but fell short of consensus bottom-line estimates. As expected, the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic took a large bite out of its performance last quarter with global comparable sales down 23.9% versus the same period a year-ago. McDonald’s reported that its global comparable store sales trajectory improved throughout the second quarter as the decline shrank from -39.0% (negative 39.0%) in April 2020 to -12.3% (negative 12.3%) by June 2020. Shares of MCD sold off modestly during normal trading hours on July 28, and we caution that McDonald’s still appears to be generously valued as of this writing.



The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.