Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Feb 21, 2024

Walmart’s Free Cash Flow Remains Robust, Buys Vizio to Boost Advertising Business
Image: Walmart’s free cash flow generation during fiscal 2024 was superb and comfortably covers its cash dividends paid. Walmart is doing a fantastic job executing on its value proposition, and the company is in a sweet spot with respect to consumer trends given the step change in prices the past few years that is causing consumers to trade down to value offerings. The firm’s comp sales are coming in better than expected, and its free cash flow generation remains well in excess of its cash dividends paid, providing ample support for further dividend hikes. Walmart will execute a 3-for-1 stock split on February 23 and will begin trading on a post-split basis February 26. Though Walmart retains a massive net debt position, perhaps its only drawback from a financial standpoint, the company is a fantastic dividend grower and perhaps one of the best considerations within the retail space these days. Shares yield ~1.4% at the time of this writing.

Feb 20, 2024

Dividend Growth Idea Home Depot Hikes Payout Nearly 8%!
Image: Home Depot is working through some soft sales trends following robust home improvement spending during the pandemic, but the company’s free cash flow generation remains top notch. On February 20, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Home Depot reported mixed fourth quarter results that showed revenue pressure in the period, but the company still beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. We’re huge fans of Home Depot’s resilience through the ups and downs of the real estate market, and the company’s pace of dividend growth remains solid. Our fair value estimate of Home Depot stands at $369 per share, modestly higher than where it is trading, and the company has a strong 1.4x Dividend Cushion ratio, which speaks to future dividend expansion.

Feb 19, 2024

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified
Let's examine the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The key takeaways are: 1) without using a discounted cash-flow model, the P/E ratio that should be applied to a company's future expected earnings stream can never be appropriately calculated, and by extension, 2) when investors assign an arbitrary price-to-earnings multiple to a company’s earnings (based on historical trends or industry peers or the market multiple), they are essentially making estimates for all of the drivers behind a discounted cash-flow model in one fell swoop (and sometimes hastily). As earnings for next year are often within sight and can be estimated with some confidence (though this certainly varies among firms), calculating the price-to-earnings ratio via a discounted cash-flow process, in our opinion, is of far greater importance than worrying about whether a firm will beat or miss earnings in its next fiscal year. Because the P/E ratio is a discounted cash-flow model that considers the long-term qualitative dynamics of a particular entity, cash-flow analysis remains the first and most important pillar of our Valuentum Buying Index. And finally, investors cannot ignore valuation analysis or the future. Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based on future expectations that can only be estimated. This is just a fact of the markets.

Feb 19, 2024

Energy Transfer’s Lofty Distributions Are Much More Sustainable These Days
Image: Energy Transfer covered its distributions with traditional free cash flow in 2023, and the company offers investors an elevated distribution yield. Energy Transfer reported mixed fourth-quarter results on February 14, but the company’s traditional free cash flow metrics continue to hold up well, providing support to its lofty distribution. Years ago, pipeline entities were spending much more than they reasonably could to be able to sustain their distributions at prior levels, and many have readjusted both their capital spending trajectories as well as their distributions over the years. These days, pipeline entities such as Energy Transfer, with their geographically diversified portfolio of assets, are in much better shape to sustain their payouts. Units of Energy Transfer yield ~8.7% at the time of this writing.

Feb 18, 2024

Tanger’s External Growth Activity Looks Encouraging
Image Source: Tanger Inc. Tanger Inc. is an owner and operator of outlet and open-air retail shopping destinations, and the REIT has done a great job of late, with shares advancing more than 50% during the past year. While traditional real estate equities have languished, Tanger has managed to keep moving in the right direction. The REIT reported better than expected fourth-quarter results February 15, and its ~3.6% dividend yield isn’t too shabby. For investors looking to take a leap into retail REITs, Tanger may be among the top considerations.

Feb 18, 2024

Digital Realty Trust Has Bucked Broader REIT Sector Weakness
Image: Digital Realty Trust has outperformed the broader REIT sector by quite the margin since the beginning of 2023. Real estate investors have had a difficult time the past year, with shares of the Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF falling roughly 6% versus a 22%+ return on the S&P 500, both measured on a price-only basis. Data center REIT Digital Realty, however, has bucked the trend of the broader real estate sector’s weakness advancing 20% over the same time period on a price only basis. Digital Realty’s fourth-quarter results and guidance for 2024, released February 15, weren’t great, but the company is much better positioned than other REITs, in our view. Shares yield ~3.6% at the time of this writing.

Feb 17, 2024

Latest Report Updates
Check out the latest report updates on the website.

Feb 16, 2024

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 16
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.

Feb 15, 2024

Cisco Looks Cheap at 13x Forward Non-GAAP Earnings But Fundamentals Are Deteriorating
Image: Cisco has ratcheted down expectations during the past couple quarters, and its shares have been choppy for the better part of a year now. We’re not liking what we’re seeing from Cisco Systems these days, and this is a change from our generally more upbeat view during the past several months. Revenue is under pressure, guidance continues to come in lower than expectations, its balance sheet will weaken as a result of its pending deal for Splunk, and free cash flow trends haven’t been as strong as they used to be. The company is adjusting its cost structure with layoffs as it continues to work to transform its business model to be more recurring, but the near term will likely continue to be challenging for the company. If free cash flow does not meaningfully improve in the next couple quarters, we’ll look to remove Cisco from the newsletter portfolios, despite its attractive ~13x forward non-GAAP earnings multiple.

Feb 14, 2024

Coca Cola’s Pricing Strength Continues to Power Results
Image: Coca-Cola’s pace of price/mix expansion continues to drive strong performance. On February 13, Coca-Cola reported strong fourth quarter results that exceeded expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The standout metric in the quarter was organic revenue growth, which advanced an impressive 12% in the quarter thanks to a solid 9 percentage-point increase in price/mix and 3 percentage-point expansion in concentrate sales. The company’s outlook for 2024 was strong as well, with the company targeting organic revenue expansion of 6%-7% for the year, and we like the momentum behind Coca-Cola’s performance. The Dividend King continues to deliver for investors, and while shares are trading above our fair value estimate, investors can do a lot worse than investing in Coca-Cola, in our view.