Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Dec 30, 2019

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Delivers Again in 2019
 The story of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio this year was one dominated by big tech. Apple trounced the return of what could be considered our benchmark by about 80 percentage points. It basically beat the S&P Dividend ETF SDPR by a factor of about 5 times! 2019 was simply the year to own Apple, and my goodness we had it right near the top of both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. You would think this was a no-brainer, as everyone loves Apple, but many a portfolio manager did not own Apple this year. Apple also upped its dividend 5%+ during 2019...

Dec 17, 2019

Cisco, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, and PayPal in the News
Cisco is trading at the low end of our fair value estimate range, and the company’s healthy dividend yield is well supported. Intel remains one of our favorite ides, and we expect a stellar dividend-growth trajectory at the company, too. Johnson & Johnson’s shares look poised to break out to new highs, and PayPal continues to execute nicely.

Dec 12, 2019

Our Reports on Stocks in the Communications Equipment Space
Image Source: Seth Stoll. We've optimized our technology coverage.

Nov 15, 2019

Cisco Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow Supported By a Solid Net Cash Position
Image Shown: A breakdown of Cisco Systems Inc’s revenue as of the end of its fiscal 2019. Image Source: Cisco Systems – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report. On November 13, Cisco Systems reported first-quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended October 26, 2019) that saw shares of CSCO sell off on November 14. That was likely due to the weak guidance management put out for the second quarter of the firm’s fiscal 2020, but we continue to like Cisco’s quality free cash flows and net cash balance. We’ll have plenty more to say when Cisco publishes its 10-Q filing covering the first quarter of its fiscal 2020.

Sep 16, 2019

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, “Quac-cidental Correlation,” and Economic Moats
Image Source: Anders Sandberg. Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain factors, while others are saying that many were forced to deleverage. We’re not so sure, and we think it may be the opposite: after years of suffering from lagging “value” returns, we think several quant shops stepped in to take on leverage, betting on a return to “value.” Let's talk about last week's quant quake, spurious correlations (the “guac-cidental correlation, in fact), economic moats and much more.

Aug 29, 2019

Where Are the Safe Havens?
"We believe that staying diversified as in holding a broad swath of ideas as in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the equity portion of one’s allocation makes a lot of sense in any environment...High yield dividend investing may become more and more popular in coming years as rates across the globe approach 0%, and the amount of negative-yielding debt proliferates." -- Brian Nelson, CFA

Aug 24, 2019

Not Worried About Cisco
Image Source: Fiscal fourth-quarter 2019 press release.We think the market is overreacting when it comes to Cisco’s outlook. Our fair value estimate remains in the mid-$50s, and Cisco’s Dividend Cushion ratio is still very healthy at ~2.8x.

Jul 17, 2019

In the News: Second-Quarter Earnings Season Begins
Second-quarter earnings season is upon us. The markets aren’t expecting much growth. Core industrial names may not fare well, but thus far, big pharma is solid. We’re not making any changes to the newsletter portfolios.

May 17, 2019

Cisco Delivers, Deere Disappoints, Pinterest Plummets, More Reports
In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: AMAT, BIDU, CSCO, DE, FLO, INTC, JACK, PINS, WMT.

May 6, 2019

Berkshire's Buybacks, More Earnings Reports
In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: ANET, ATVI, BRK.B, CHD, DWDP, DNKN, GILD, HBI, K, TEVA.