Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Mar 24, 2023

How the Payment of a Dividend Impacts Intrinsic Value Estimation
"Dividends are a transfer of cash to the shareholders that the shareholders already owned."In this purely educational article, using historical data from 3M, let’s walk through the mechanics of how the payment of a dividend impacts the intrinsic value of a company. The takeaways may be somewhat counterintuitive but are nonetheless very important for members to understand.

Dec 27, 2022

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!

Dec 24, 2022

Raising Our Fair Value Estimate of Dividend Aristocrat Caterpillar
Image: Caterpillar’s financial momentum is impressive. Image Source: Caterpillar. Things are looking good for Caterpillar, and the company’s free cash flow strength continues to support its payout and Dividend Aristocrat status. Caterpillar’s results are cyclical and exhibit operating leverage, which cuts both ways, but the firm’s pricing power is working wonders on its financials at the moment. Higher dealer inventories due in part to timing and labor shortages, foreign currency headwinds, and weakening dynamics in the residential construction market and in Europe and China are concerns, but the company’s strong performance warrants a fair value estimate increase, in our view. Though we like Caterpillar quite a bit, we’re not looking to add shares to any simulated newsletter portfolio at this time, however.

Nov 28, 2022

Deere’s Incredible Pricing Power Shines Through in Fiscal Fourth Quarter
Image: Deere put up excellent fiscal fourth-quarter results for the period ending October 30, 2022. The company's pricing power is phenomenal. Image Source: Deere. Deere & Company put up excellent fiscal fourth quarter results November 23, and the highlight of the quarter was the firm’s tremendous pricing power. Its outlook for fiscal 2023 was solid, too, and we expect considerable operating income expansion on the back of strong double-digit top-line growth as supply chain issues fall to the wayside in the coming quarters as economic conditions normalize. Deere has a sizable net debt position and traditional free cash flow faced pressure on a year-over-year basis during fiscal 2022, but the company may be one of the best ways to combat inflation through equities. Management also expects operating cash flow to bounce back to the range of $9-$9.5 billion in fiscal 2023 from $4.7 billion in the recently completed fiscal 2022. For us, however, Deere isn’t a great fit for the simulated newsletter portfolios given its pricey stock and comparatively small dividend yield of ~1%, but its outlook bodes well for the agricultural supply chain for fiscal 2023. The high end of our fair value estimate for Deere still resides below its current price of $440 per share, meaning investors are paying up to own Deere at the moment.

Nov 28, 2022

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership
In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance--despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening!

Nov 10, 2022

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print
Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also not ruling out a Santa Claus rally through the end of the year. Merry Dow Jones, as they say!

Oct 30, 2022

Something New!
Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you'll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you'll see this table in our work going forward.

Oct 27, 2022

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022
Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. Let's talk more about the VBI rating system in this work.

Oct 27, 2022

Honeywell Jumps on Third-Quarter Report, Strong Guidance
Image Source: Honeywell. On October 27, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Honeywell International reported solid third-quarter performance and provided higher guidance for the full-year 2022. We continue to like the company as an idea in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, as we expect robust dividend growth in the coming years. The high end of our fair value estimate of Honeywell stands at $224 per share. Shares yield ~2.2% at the time of this writing.

Oct 20, 2022

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!
Let's see who won an autographed copy of Value Trap and what they said about Valuentum's research! We applaud all of our members in their quest to preserve and generate long-term wealth. Keep going strong!