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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Apr 26, 2023
Chipotle Hits All-Time High, Microsoft Doesn’t Disappoint in Calendar First-Quarter 2023
Image: Ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio are doing great! Shares of Chipotle are up ~45% so far in 2023, while shares of large cap growth giant Microsoft (orange) are up more than 20% year-to-date. Microsoft’s shares soared during the trading session April 26 thanks to strong third-quarter fiscal 2023 performance for the period ending March 31 led by its Azure cloud business segment, while Chipotle’s first-quarter 2023 report only provides more support for a higher intrinsic value estimate for shares.
Apr 11, 2023
Not Worried About Global PC Demand Weakness
Image Source: IDC. On April 9, International Data Corporation (IDC) issued preliminary findings for the first quarter of 2023 for global personal computer (PC) shipments in its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results were a bit surprising, with the firm noting that “weak demand, excess inventory, and a worsening macroeconomic climate were all contributing factors for the precipitous drop in shipments of traditional PCs during the first quarter of 2023.” According to the IDC report, global PC shipments fell 29% to 56.9 million compared to the first quarter of 2022. Apple experienced the biggest year-over-year percentage decline, where shipments fell more than 40%. Dell Technologies, Lenovo and ASUS experienced declines greater than 30%, while HP Inc. and a basket of other PC makers witnessed declines in the mid-20% range. Channel inventory remains elevated, and investors should expect more discounting from the PC makers, as the industry continues to optimize the supply chain amid pre-COVID and post-COVID demand dynamics.
Apr 6, 2023
U.S. Economy Likely Weakened During Regional Bank Crisis; Artificial Intelligence the Next Great Platform
Image Source: Trong Khiem Nguyen. SVB Financial’s failure and the ongoing regional banking crisis has likely crimped lending activity and economic growth, a situation further exacerbating any impending effects on the broader economy from the Fed’s contractionary monetary policy, itself. With first-quarter 2023 earnings season around the corner and the potential for another shoe to drop in commercial real estate or the U.S. housing market, we’re still being patient in putting “newly-raised” capital in the newsletter portfolios to work. Our favorite areas, however, remain big cap tech and large cap growth, as we’re huge fans of their cash-based sources of intrinsic value--both net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow generation. Microsoft, an idea in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, is one of our favorite ways to play the rise of artificial intelligence.
Apr 6, 2023
Legacy of Benjamin Graham
Legacy of Benjamin Graham: The Original Adjunct Professor. This film, brought to you by the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing, Columbia Business School, premiered on February 1, 2013 at the 16th Annual Columbia Student Investment Management Association conference. Produced by: Louisa Serene Schneider. Shot & Edited by: Christina Choe.
Mar 23, 2023
The Dividend Cushion Ratio: Unadjusted Is Less Subjective, Adjusted Is More Subjective
Image Source: Mike Lawrence. Question: I'm a subscriber. I'm looking at your Dividend Report for Enterprise Product Partners. It says your Valuentum Adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio for EPD is 1.8 (a ratio that includes future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), but several lines below it says the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, which is your regular normal ratio (a ratio that does not include future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), is 0.22. Please explain the difference between the two ratios, and what is considered a good ratio for the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, what is an excellent score, what is neutral and what is poor? Also, how much relative importance should I give to each ratio? Also, further down in the section on Unadjusted Dividend Cushion, the chart of EPD has a large negative number in the blue bar, and your text says: "Generally speaking, the greater the 'blue bar' to the right is in the positive, the more durable a company's dividend, and the greater the 'blue bar' to the right is in the negative, the less durable a company's dividend." So that means that EPD's dividend isn't durable, yet your report earlier says that EPD's Dividend Safety rating is GOOD. Can you elaborate?
Mar 14, 2023
Brain Teaser - Reflexive versus Reflective
Image: Amy Leonard. Valuation multiples tend to trigger the reflexive side of our brain, and we process the multiples through anchoring. On the other hand, enterprise valuation, or the process required to answer the questions (in this article) correctly, shows that our reflexive process can be quite incorrect at times. In fact, cognitive biases such as anchoring can completely trip us up into missing out on truly undervalued companies that may have high P/E ratios while baiting us into value traps with low P/E ratios.
Mar 6, 2023
Markets Bounce Off Technical Support But Not Out of the Woods
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off technical support last week, both the 200-day moving average as well as the breakout of the downtrend line, but while this may push off any leg down in the near term, we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” on a few newsletter portfolio names if a breakthrough of support to the downside happens. Image Source: TradingView. The 200-day moving average remains a key technical level for the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The risks that the market may break through both the 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line remain elevated, but the past week showed a successful test of technical support levels, in our view, and that means to us markets may avoid any substantial leg down for the time being. We continue to be cautious on the equity markets in the near term, and we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” across the newsletter portfolios if the S&P 500 breaks through its 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line.
Jan 26, 2023
Market-Cap Weighted S&P 500 Breaks Out; Have We Already Seen the Bottom?
Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) has broken through its downtrend. The markets could be headed meaningfully higher. Image Source: TradingView. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 has broken out of the technical downtrend that defined 2022 following the equal-weight breakout that preceded it. The pace of inflation looks like it peaked in June 2022, and while myriad risks to both the economy and stock market remain, fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season is shaping up better than feared. We maintain our view that the markets remain at critical technical levels, and we continue to monitor earnings season and technical developments closely.
Jan 25, 2023
Microsoft Is Betting Big on Artificial Intelligence (AI); Fiscal Q2 Shows Meager Revenue Growth, Weaker Cash Flow Generation
Image: Microsoft believes artificial intelligence (AI) will be the next platform wave, and the company is going full steam ahead to incorporate AI across its business systems. Image Source: Microsoft. “The age of AI is upon us and Microsoft is powering it. We are witnessing non-linear improvements in capability of foundation models, which we are making available as platforms. And as customers select their cloud providers and invest in new workloads, we are well positioned to capture that opportunity as a leader in AI. We have the most powerful AI supercomputing infrastructure in the cloud. It’s being used by customers and partners like OpenAI to train state-of-the-art models and services, including ChatGPT.” – Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (January 24, 2023)
Jan 19, 2023
Consumers Feeling the Pinch; S&P 500 Bounces Off Technical Resistance; Elasticities Breaking Down for Staples Stocks
Image: The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance and will likely test 3,400, in our view. Image Source: TradingView. Things continue to deteriorate across the broader U.S. economy, but it's worth reiterating that the economy is not the stock market. The labor markets remain strong, but we continue to hear of layoffs across Silicon Valley, consumers are working through their excess savings built up during the pandemic, while net charge offs are expected to double in 2023 as credit quality deteriorates. Consumer staples names may be struggling to make elasticities work of late in light of the weakness in operating income in P&G’s calendar fourth-quarter 2022 results. Consumers are finding ways to trade down to private-label products. The S&P 500 has bounced right off its technical resistance, and we could test 3,400 during the year on the index. We remain bullish on stocks in the long run, however.


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.