Valuentum Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor

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Jan 29, 2021

More Earnings Reports: BA, CMCSA, MCD
Image Shown: Though the past year has been brutal for the commercial airliner and aerospace industries, and it will continue to be rough sledding in the near term, Boeing is optimistic that within a few years passenger traffic will return to pre-pandemic levels and resume its growth trajectory thereafter. Image Source: Boeing Company – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation. We are continuing with our coverage of key earnings reports. Ongoing vaccine distribution activities should help global health authorities bring the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic under control, though risks remain as new variants of the virus are popping up all over the place (and then spreading aggressively). In this article, we cover the recent earnings reports from Boeing, Comcast, and McDonald's.

Jan 29, 2021

Starbucks Expects to Recover in Fiscal 2021
Image Shown: Shares of Starbucks Corporation appear fairly valued at this time. The top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $100 per share of SBUX.We're reiterating our fair value estimate of $80 per share of Starbucks, and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $100 per share. As of this writing, shares of Starbucks appear to be fairly valued at this time. While Starbucks’ operations are rebounding and its guidance for fiscal 2021 indicates the firm expects ongoing COVID-19 vaccine distribution activities will have a powerful impact on its near-term financial performance, the firm’s current share price already takes into consideration its pending recovery, in our view. We are not interested in adding Starbucks to any of our newsletter portfolios at this time.

Jan 27, 2021

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios
Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we're raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially considering the vast "gains" from the March 2020 bottom and the increased systemic risks arising from price-agnostic trading (read Value Trap). The individual holdings will be reduced in proportion to arrive at the new targeted cash weighting in the respective simulated newsletter portfolios. The High Yield Dividend Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter are scheduled for release February 1. We'll have more to say soon.

Jan 19, 2021

Chipotle, Domino's Continue to Deliver for Shareholders
Image Shown: Domino’s Pizza Inc aims to grow its market share in the US by leaning heavily on its delivery and digital operations, a realm the firm has significant competitive advantages in, as compared to leaning on carryout operations at physical stores. Image Source: Domino’s Pizza Inc – January 2021 IR Presentation. In the restaurant industry, one thing the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has made clear is that having drive thru operations, a strong online presence and respectable delivery services will be key to meeting consumer demand going forward. Physical restaurant locations that rely on indoor dinning will become relevant once again when the pandemic is contained, something the ongoing distribution of COVID-19 vaccines should help accomplish, but the use of food/beverage delivery services in a post-pandemic world will likely be greater than that in the pre-pandemic world (both in terms of number of households and the number of times households that use such services in any given period). Omni-channel selling capabilities are essential not just for the retail space but for restaurants as well, particularly fast-causal operations. Placing a greater emphasis on digital marketing campaigns will be essential, too, given the highly targeted nature of these offerings and the wide reach such campaigns generally have. With that in mind, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc and Domino’s Pizza are two restaurants with stellar omni-channel selling capabilities that have made considerable upgrades to their digital operations during the past few years.

Jan 7, 2021

Chicken Sandwich Wars Heating Up In the US
Image Shown: Rivals in the quick-service restaurant space are aggressively competing for share in the fast-growing premium chicken sandwich category following Popeyes' considerable success. Source: Images/logos property of the respective companies. Nothing has been the same in the fast-food industry since Popeyes launched its first nationwide chicken sandwich August 12, 2019. The release of the delicious chicken sandwich from the company named after Gene Hackman's character Popeye Doyle in the 1971 film The French Connection may even have changed the fast-food industry as we know it. Popeyes' "tender all-white meat chicken breast fillet, marinated in (its) authentic blend of Louisiana seasonings, then hand battered and breaded in (its) all new buttermilk coating...served with crisp barrel cured pickles and Classic or Spicy Mayonnaise, served on a warm and toasted buttery brioche bun" has been driving the taste buds of customers wild. Just writing this has made us hungry for one, and rivals haven't been sitting quietly in light of the success of Popeyes' new creation. Who can forget the infamous Popeyes and Chick-fil-A feud on Twitter that caught customers' attention, and even Wendy's couldn't resist jumping into the ring. There's clearly a lot at stake.

Dec 25, 2020

All I Want for Christmas Are Dividend Aristocrats
Image Source: 5 Furlongs. It may not be as catchy as Mariah Carey's Christmas hit, "All I Want For Christmas Is You," but if you ask a dividend growth investor what they might want for Christmas as it relates to an investment, they might start singing about a long list of Dividend Aristocrats--a list of companies that have increased their dividends in each of the past 20-25+ years. Therefore, we wanted to do something special this Christmas for members. We've aggregated a list of every non-financial Dividend Aristocrat in our 16-page stock report coverage universe and made a list conveniently available, including some key data and links directly to their 16-page stock reports (pdf). To access the 16-page stock report of any company on this list, just click on its name, and you'll be prompted to download that particular company's 16-page stock report pdf file. Remember, we provide separate Dividend Reports for stocks, too. For example, the 16-page stock report pdf file that is linked to a company's name in this article is only a portion of the research, commentary, ratings and data on that particular company. Let's take Emerson Electric as an example. Not only does it have a 16-page Stock Report and additional Valuentum commentary via articles and notes, but it also has a Dividend Report. Both pdf reports can be downloaded on its stock web page (the pdf icons are to the right of the stock chart). We hope you enjoy the vast amount of research connected to the download links on this list. Each company's fair value estimate, Dividend Cushion ratio, Economic Castle rating and much more is backed by our three-stage discounted cash flow process with fully populated financial statements, available by request from Gold and Platinum members. Please download away! What's your favorite Dividend Aristocrat? Comments welcome.

Dec 14, 2020

Starbucks’ Long-Term Outlook Is Improving
Image Shown: Starbucks Corporation sees the total addressable market for coffee products growing by a decent clip over the coming years, which is forecasted to reach ~$450 billion in 2023. Image Source: Starbucks Corporation – 2020 Biennial Investor Day Presentation. On December 9, Starbucks Corp hosted its biennial Investor Day meeting, held virtually this year due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and updated its financial guidance for the next several fiscal years. For reference, Starbucks’ GAAP revenues and GAAP operating income fell 11% and 62% year-over-year, respectively, in fiscal 2020 (period ended September 27, 2020) as the company contended with headwinds created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking ahead, Starbucks expects to realize a “significant rebound” in fiscal 2021 and “outsize growth” in fiscal 2022, particularly as it concerns its non-GAAP EPS performance. We expect to raise our fair value estimate modestly upon the next update.

Dec 1, 2020

Walking Through the Calculation of the Dividend Cushion Ratio
Image shown: An image found on page 2 of Valuentum's Dividend Report on Kimberly-Clark. The 'Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction,' shown in the image, reveals the numerator and denominator of the Dividend Cushion ratio. At the core, the larger the numerator (or the healthier a company's balance sheet and future free cash flow generation) relative to the denominator (or a company's future expected cash dividend obligations), the more durable the dividend. In the context of the Dividend Cushion ratio, KimberlyClark's numerator is larger than its denominator suggesting strong dividend coverage in the future. The 'Dividend Cushion Ratio Deconstruction' image puts sources of free cash flow in the context of financial obligations next to expected cash dividend payments over the next 5 years on a side-by-side comparison. Because the Dividend Cushion ratio and many of its components are forward-looking, our dividend evaluation may change upon subsequent updates as future forecasts are altered to reflect new information.We believe the Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most helpful tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based, considers balance sheet health, and is forward looking. Since its development in 2012, we estimate its efficacy at ~90% in helping to forewarn readers of impending dividend cuts. For companies where Valuentum reports are available, the Dividend Cushion ratio can be found in a stock's Dividend Report or in the table on the company's stock landing page. We use Kimberly-Clark as an example of how we calculate the Dividend Cushion ratio and how useful it is for investors of all types.

Nov 10, 2020

McDonald’s: Holding Up Well During the Pandemic
McDonald’s is without a doubt a fantastic enterprise with a storied history and moaty characteristics. The firm is holding up quite well and has managed to drive innovation to overcome almost every obstacle it has faced in the past. Though there are long-term risks to the dividend payout based on the Dividend Cushion ratio, the company’s credit marks and free cash flow generation are enough for us to be confident in a growing payout for the foreseeable future. Shares are fairly valued at the moment, but dividend growth investors might want to take a hard look at this fast-food behemoth for their portfolios.

Nov 2, 2020

ICYMI -- Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle
Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. In many dividend-targeted ETFs, for example, it may not matter to the index creator whether a firm has $10 billion in net debt or $10 billion in net cash; as long as management has a track record of raising the dividend in the past, it is included. To us, however, there is a world of difference between a company that has a huge net cash position and a huge net debt position. The more excess cash on the balance sheet a dividend payer has, for example, the more secure its payout. In some cases, entities held in high-yielding ETFs don't even cover their dividends or distributions with traditional free cash flow generation, despite having ominous net debt loads. A look at the high-yielding ALPS Alerian MLP ETF, for example, shows a number of entities that are buried under a mountain of debt and are generating meager free cash flow relative to expected distributions. The lofty yield on that ETF should therefore be viewed with a very cautious eye. If the yield weren't at risk for a big cut, the market would bid up the stock, and down the yield would go. In no way should you believe that you can sleep well at night holding stocks yielding north of 10% when the current 10-year Treasury is well below 1%. The market is just not that inefficient. A dividend growth strategy can never be a passive one either. Only through constant attention to the balance sheet (net cash) and future free cash flow expectations can investors truly sleep well at night. At Valuentum, we do the balance sheet and cash flow work and summarize it succinctly in a key ratio called the Dividend Cushion ratio.