Kinder Morgan Issues Strong Outlook; Adjusts Leverage Target

Image: Kinder Morgan’s shares have been choppy during the past couple years.

By Brian Nelson, CFA

On April 17, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported first-quarter 2024 results. The company’s earnings per share came in at $0.33 per share in the quarter, while distributable cash flow [DCF] per share came in at $0.64 for the period, reflecting a 10% and 5% increase, respectively. Net income attributable to Kinder Morgan in the first quarter was $746 million, up from $679 million in the same period a year ago. DCF also moved in the right direction, coming in at $1.42 billion in the quarter, up from $1.37 billion in last year’s quarter.

Kinder Morgan issued the following outlook for 2024:

For 2024, including contributions from the acquired STX Midstream assets, KMI budgeted net income attributable to KMI of $2.7 billion ($1.22 per share), up 15% versus 2023, and expects to declare dividends of $1.15 per share for 2024, a 2% increase from the dividends declared for 2023. The company also budgeted 2024 DCF of $5 billion ($2.26 per share), and Adjusted EBITDA of $8.16 billion, both up 8% versus 2023, and to end 2024 with a Net Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.9 times. 

We liked the 2024 outlook for Kinder Morgan, one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America. The company benefits from fee-based cash flows backed by multi-year contracts, and the firm is doing a much better job managing traditional free cash flow and its leverage. In its latest quarterly release, management adjusted lower its long-term leverage target to the range of 3.5x to 4.5x for net-debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA (was 4.5x previously). Shares yield 6.3% on a forward estimated basis.