AT&T Expects Strong Free Cash Flow in Coming Years

Image Source: TradingView

By Brian Nelson, CFA

On October 22, AT&T (T) reported mixed third quarter results with revenue missing the consensus forecast, but GAAP earnings per share coming in line with expectations. Revenue in the third quarter totaled $30.7 billion, up from $30.2 billion in the year-ago quarter, up 1.6%. AT&T benefited from higher Mobility, Consumer Wireline and Mexico revenues, strength that was partially offset by a decline in Business Wireline. Adjusted operating income in the quarter was $6.6 billion versus $6.5 billion in last year’s quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.9 billion in the quarter versus $11.6 billion in the year-ago period. Cash flow from operating activities was $10.2 billion, consistent with the year-ago quarter, while capital spending dropped to $4.9 billion from $5.3 billion in last year’s period. Free cash flow was $4.9 billion versus $4.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. Total debt stood at $139.5 billion, while net debt was $118.8 billion.

Management had the following to say about the results:

We have the key building blocks in place to give our customers the best connectivity experience in the industry and we’re winning the race to lead in convergence. We continue to add highly-profitable customers that are choosing AT&T for all their connectivity needs on the country’s fastest and largest wireless and fiber networks. It’s clear our differentiated investment-led strategy is working, and we remain on track to achieve all of our 2025 consolidated financial guidance.

AT&T reiterated its full year 2025 financial guidance. Consolidated service revenue is targeted to grow in the low-single-digit range, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow 3% or better. Free cash flow is expected in the low-to-mid $16 billion range, while adjusted earnings per share is targeted in the higher end of the $1.97-$2.07 range. The company also reiterated its 2026-2027 financial outlook. Consolidated service revenue growth is expected in the low-single-digit range annually from 2026-2027, with adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% or better annually from 2026-2027. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to accelerate to double-digit percentage growth in 2027. Free cash flow is targeted at $18+ billion and $19+ billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively. We like the free cash flow growth expectations at AT&T, but its huge net debt position keeps us on the sidelines. Shares yield 4.3% at the time of this writing.

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