ASML Cannot Confirm Growth in 2026 at This Stage

Image: ASML’s shares fell under pressure following uncertainty regarding expected 2026 performance.

By Brian Nelson, CFA

ASML Holding (ASML) reported solid second quarter results July 16 with revenue and earnings per share coming in ahead of the consensus forecast. Second quarter net sales were €7.7 billion on a gross margin of 53.7%. Net income was €2.3 billion. Quarterly net bookings in the second quarter were €5.5 billion, of which €2.3 billion was EUV. The company ended the quarter with €7.25 billion in cash and short-term investments. Here is what management had to say about the results:

Our second-quarter total net sales came in at €7.7 billion, at the top end of our guidance. The gross margin was 53.7%, above guidance, primarily driven by higher upgrade business and one-offs resulting in lower costs. 

We see continued progress in litho intensity, particularly in DRAM, and the introduction of the TWINSCAN NXE:3800E reinforces that momentum. Meanwhile, EUV adoption is advancing as planned, including High NA. This quarter, we shipped the first TWINSCAN EXE:5200B system.

Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong. At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.

We expect third-quarter total net sales between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52%. We expect R&D costs of around €1.2 billion and SG&A costs of around €310 million. For the full year 2025, we expect a 15% increase in total net sales and a gross margin of around 52%.

ASML’s second quarter results were solid, and we liked its sequential bookings growth in the quarter. The company’s revenue and gross margin guidance for the third quarter was also good, but margins look to face some pressure on a sequential basis. During the quarter, ASML repurchased around €1.4 billion worth of shares. Though we thought performance by the firm was great in the quarter, management’s commentary that it could not confirm growth in 2026 at this stage left something to be desired. We continue to be positive on ASML’s shares, nonetheless.

—–