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Fundamental data is updated weekly, as of the prior weekend. Please download the Full Report and Dividend Report for any changes.
Latest Valuentum Commentary

Jan 8, 2024
Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World
Image Source: EpicTop10.com. We have to be on high alert about how our minds work. PBS recently delivered a four-part series examining how easily our minds are being hacked, and why it is so important to "think slow." When it comes to the active versus passive debate, does the analysis suffer from parameter risk? With respect to empirical, evidence-based analysis, does the analysis have the entire construct wrong? When it comes to short-cut multiples, are we falling into the behavioral trap of thinking on autopilot?
Dec 8, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 8
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Nov 17, 2023
REITs Will Likely Continue To Underperform
Image: REITs have not performed as well as some may have thought. This article clearly explains that REIT dividends are risky and showcases that REIT investors have missed out on a lot of total return during the past decade or so. One has to go back a long time to see any real return from REITs, and changing working and shopping habits will likely continue to punish the broader REIT sector. We view REITs as a game of financial leverage tied to the vicissitudes of the commercial real estate cycle, all for a dividend yield that approximates that of risk-free assets these days. REITs seem to have a large following these days and many will come to the defense of REITs in their own way, but from a bird's eye view of this market, we remain puzzled by the love affair some have for them. We can only posit that some have a myopic focus on REIT-specific metrics, are not getting the best information when it comes to capital-market dependence risk, and perhaps don't truly understand the structural dynamics of the dividend payment with respect to the free dividends fallacy (i.e. that a REIT's share price is adjusted downward by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date). In our view, the structural dynamics that have hurt REITs for the past decade won't be going away anytime soon, and for investors looking to maximize their returns and the longevity of their retirement savings, there are much better options than REITs.
Aug 2, 2023
ICYMI: Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate: What’s the Bear Case for Realty Income?
Image Source: Realty Income. It’s helpful to challenge one’s thesis on a favorite idea every now and then, and we’ve done just that with Realty Income in this article. We see three areas of weakness at Realty Income that could challenge our bullish take on the name: 1) its retail exposure, 2) its financial leverage and arguably unwarranted investment-grade credit rating, and 3) the current rising interest rate environment. Perhaps the most compelling component of the bear case on Realty Income is its massive net debt position and present value of future dividend liabilities that dwarf its annual operating cash flow. The REIT business model isn’t as attractive as many make it out to be.
Apr 28, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of April 28
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jan 20, 2023
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 20
Let's take a look at firms raising/lowering their dividends this week.
Jan 20, 2023
Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?
REITs, as measured by the Vanguard ETF (VNQ), have generated a total return of 39.5% since the beginning of 2015 through the end of 2022, an eight-year period that has translated into a measly compound annual return of just 4.25%. This compares to a total return of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) of 116.3%, which translates into a compound annual return of 10.1% over the same time period. Not only have REITs underperformed terribly during the past 8 years, but there have been more than 100 dividend cuts by REITs over this time period, too. REITs just aren’t what some make them out to be. Be careful.
Dec 27, 2022
Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023
Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year's Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers!
Dec 7, 2022
REITs May Continue to Face Pressure
Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. Equity and mortgage REITs have been under considerable pressure during 2022. Institutional investors seem to be fleeing the sector, but retail investor interest still seems unusually high. We think this might be a tell-tale sign that retail investors could end up getting burned, if they haven’t been already by the terrible performance across the sector so far in 2022. Withdrawals on non-publicly traded REITs are soaring, and SL Green’s dividend cut may be the first of many in the sector to come. We only include a select few REITs across our simulated newsletter portfolios.
Nov 30, 2022
Great Year for (Our) High Yield Dividend Ideas! Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter!
Image: The year-to-date simulated estimated performance of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, which continues to hold up well during 2022, while offering an attractive forward estimated dividend yield. Simulated estimated performance is calculated by Valuentum and has not been externally audited. Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. The next edition will be released December 1, 2022. Based on our estimates, the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio is down ~4.4% on a price-only basis so far in 2022 on an interim basis, using data from the trading session November 29 (retrieved from Seeking Alpha). By comparison, according to data from Morningstar, the Vanguard 60/40 stock/bond portfolio (VBIAX) is down more than 15% so far this year (on a price-only basis), the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) is down 26% year-to-date (on a price-only basis), while the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) is down ~30% on a year-to-date basis. Each simulated newsletter portfolio at Valuentum targets a different strategy, whether long-term capital appreciation, dividend growth, income/high yield, and the like. Generally, for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, it targets long-term capital appreciation potential (not in one year or a couple years, but in the long run). During the past five years...an ETF that tracks the area of large cap growth is up more than 70%, while an ETF that tracks the area of dividend growth has advanced ~40%, an ETF that tracks small cap value is up ~17% during the past five years, while an ETF that tracks the area of the highest-yielding S&P 500 companies is up just 12% -- according to data from Morningstar. REITs, as measured by the VNQ, are up just 3% over the past five years. We nailed the call on the drawdown in the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio this year, and readers should continue to question the merits of modern portfolio theory, not merely state that now the 60/40 stock/bond is cheap (after the huge decline)! It's extremely important to continue to test whether something makes sense or not. If interest rates continue to rise, we think bond prices will continue to face pressure. Sometimes, a few of our best ideas don't work out (as in any year), but that's why we use the simulated (and diversified) Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio to measure the success of the VBI. We're not a quant shop. We believe in the qualitative overlay. For example, there are highly-rated ideas that don't make the cut for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and there are low-rated ideas that find their way into the newsletter portfolio because they add a diversification benefit. Given the massive up years in the broader markets in 2019, 2020 and 2021, with the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio estimated to be down in the low-double-digits so far this year (approximately ~10%-12%, by our latest tally) -- and this estimate includes the missteps in Meta Platforms (META), PayPal (PYPL), and Disney (DIS) -- this is actually pretty awesome, in our view -- especially considering all that went wrong in other areas such as crypto, REITs, mortgage REITs, disruptive innovation stocks, Chinese equities, and the list goes on and on. A low double-digit estimated percentage decline, as that "experienced" in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio so far in 2022 after huge up years, can be viewed as just part of a long-term journey that targets capital appreciation. For context, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price was nearly halved in 1974. It's okay to time the markets a bit as we did last August, but staying engaged with investing over the long haul is a key part of the recipe for success, as it was for Berkshire investors. For readers seeking income and high yield dividend ideas, please consider subscribing to our High Yield Dividend Newsletter. 2022 hasn't been an up year for a lot of investors, but it shouldn't have been a disaster either, and we've done a really great job avoiding the worst areas. We're interested in hearing how you are using our service, so that we can continue to get better. All told, we're excited about 2023, and we hope you are too!


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The High Yield Dividend Newsletter, Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, Nelson Exclusive publication, and any reports, articles and content found on this website are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The sources of the data used on this website are believed by Valuentum to be reliable, but the data’s accuracy, completeness or interpretation cannot be guaranteed. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of its newsletters, reports, commentary, or publications and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Valuentum is not a money manager, is not a registered investment advisor and does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. Valuentum, its employees, and affiliates may have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned on this site.